The Bank of Canada decided to hold its key interest rate steady on Wednesday amid mounting evidence the economy is slowing, but the central bank isn害羞草研究所檛 declaring victory yet as it remains cautious to not fuel speculation about rate cuts.

害羞草研究所淲ith recent evidence that excess demand in the economy is easing, and given the lagging effects of monetary policy, governing council decided to hold the policy interest rate at five per cent,害羞草研究所� the central bank said in a news release.

However, the Bank of Canada is keeping the door open to more rate hikes, noting its governing council is still concerned about inflationary pressures and 害羞草研究所渋s ready to raise interest rates further if needed.害羞草研究所�

Canada害羞草研究所檚 inflation rate was 3.3 per cent in July, ticking up from 2.8 per cent in the previous month.

Although inflation has slowed considerably since last summer, it害羞草研究所檚 expected to hover around three per cent for months to come.

The central bank acknowledges that inflation will even likely flare up due to higher gasoline prices before coming back down.

BMO chief economist Douglas Porter said the Bank of Canada害羞草研究所檚 decision to hold its key rate was widely expected given recent weak economic data. Now, the focus is turning to what the central bank might do next as it wrestles inflation down while trying not to send the economy into a deeper slowdown than necessary.

害羞草研究所淭hey害羞草研究所檝e clearly left the door open for the possibility that they might that they might move again,害羞草研究所� Porter said.

害羞草研究所�(But) our view is that, provided growth remains relatively calm and core inflation does continue to slowly come down, that the Bank of Canada害羞草研究所檚 probably done hiking interest rates.害羞草研究所�

Statistics Canada reported last week real gross domestic product contracted in the second quarter, which convinced forecasters that another rate hike would be unlikely.

害羞草研究所淭he Canadian economy has entered a period of weaker growth, which is needed to relieve price pressures,害羞草研究所� the central bank said.

Canada害羞草研究所檚 labour market has also lost some of its steam: the unemployment rate has been on the rise for three consecutive months.

Porter says economic growth will likely continue to stall over the next few quarters, making a recession a possibility.

害羞草研究所淲e might not fall into the the official recession definition, but it害羞草研究所檚 going to be a close run for sure,害羞草研究所� Porter said.

Reaction from Canadian commercial banks on Wednesday was nearly uniform: the central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates again, despite its hawkish tone Wednesday.

But in order to keep inflation expectations in check, economist Tu Nguyen with accounting and consultancy firm RSM Canada said the Bank of Canada will likely hold its key interest rate at five per cent into 2024.

害羞草研究所淎 premature rate cut could send businesses and consumers out borrowing and spending and risk (reaccelerating) inflation again,害羞草研究所� Nguyen said in a statement.

The combination of slowing economic growth and stubborn inflation poses a challenge to the Bank of Canada: the central bank doesn害羞草研究所檛 want to go overboard with rate hikes but it also doesn害羞草研究所檛 want to spur speculation about rate cuts that would send demand in a frenzy again.

At the start of the year, the central bank had announced a pause on rate hikes that ultimately came to an end in June, as the economy outperformed expectations and the housing market rebounded.

Porter said the Bank of Canada害羞草研究所檚 messaging earlier this year on taking a pause was 害羞草研究所渦nfortunate.害羞草研究所�

害羞草研究所淚害羞草研究所檓 not sure the bank will ever explicitly say they made a mistake, but I think they were just a little bit too liberal with the with the pause language and it got everyone excited that rate hikes were done,害羞草研究所� he said.

Altogether, the central bank has raised its key interest rate ten times since March 2022, bringing it from near-zero to the highest level since 2001.

These rate hikes are expected to continue taking effect on the economy, slowing consumer demand and dampening business investment. Economists estimate it takes about one to two years for a rate hike to fully affect demand and business activity.

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem is set to hold a news conference on Thursday, after delivering a speech to the Calgary Chamber of Commerce.