The famous 害羞草研究所渨alk in the snow害羞草研究所� that purportedly spurred Pierre Trudeau害羞草研究所檚 departure as prime minister 40 years ago has taken on such mythical proportions in Canadian politics that it even has its own Wikipedia entry.
害羞草研究所淣oun. (Canada, chiefly politics, idiomatic). An occasion when a momentous career decision is made, especially a decision to resign or retire.害羞草研究所�
Some consider it an apocryphal story: Trudeau, confronted with the reality of a resurgent Conservative party, made up his mind to step down while strolling through a blizzard on Feb. 28, 1984.
Might not his footsteps-following son 害羞草研究所� facing strikingly similar electoral math 害羞草研究所� opt to follow suit?
Those closest to him are clear: not a chance.
If the prime minister was resigning, one Liberal insider said, using decidedly unparliamentary language to emphasize the point, there害羞草研究所檚 no way he would do it on the same day as his father.
There害羞草研究所檚 no snow in the Ottawa forecast, noted another. In fact, on the very anniversary itself Wednesday, it poured rain.
No one in Trudeau害羞草研究所檚 inner circle was willing to speak publicly about the subject, lest it be taken as a message to the man himself. But veterans of political life, those who have seen up close how leaders wrestle with such dilemmas, say it often comes down to two things: how likely they are to win again, and whether they accomplished their goals.
Sometimes, it can be both.
There害羞草研究所檚 no denying the parallels: A Liberal establishment, long in the tooth and down in the polls, faced with a difficult economic climate, inflation woes and a fresh-faced opponent with all the momentum.
It害羞草研究所檚 even a leap year, just like in 1984.
But Trudeau has long dismissed, even mocked, the suggestion that he害羞草研究所檚 done.
He害羞草研究所檚 been stalking the starting line for months, anxious to defend his track record against Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre 害羞草研究所� his political and ideological antithesis, who sits atop a groundswell of popular momentum.
He would 害羞草研究所渂ring us back to, 害羞草研究所楧rill, baby, drill,害羞草研究所� ignore climate change, bring us back to 害羞草研究所楩ather is the head of the household,害羞草研究所櫤π卟菅芯克鶟 Trudeau said of Poilievre last year in an interview with friend and former radio host Terry DiMonte.
害羞草研究所淚t害羞草研究所檚 that kind of thinking that is really putting at threat everything we害羞草研究所檝e been able as a country to build over the past years.害羞草研究所�
If an election were held today, polls suggest Trudeau害羞草研究所檚 time in power would end. But with his party害羞草研究所檚 agreement with the New Democrats, he could govern for another year and a half.
Few leaders decide on a whim that it害羞草研究所檚 time to go, said former Manitoba Premier Gary Doer, who stepped down from his job in 2009 two years into his third majority government.
From the moment he first sat in the premier害羞草研究所檚 chair, the plan was always to leave before being pushed, Doer said.
害羞草研究所淵ou害羞草研究所檙e always thinking of your legacy,害羞草研究所� he said.
害羞草研究所淵ou害羞草研究所檙e trying to define as much as possible your own legacy, because God knows there害羞草研究所檚 lots of pundits who will try and define it for you the minute you step down.害羞草研究所�
Doer害羞草研究所檚 final decision came when then-prime minister Stephen Harper approached him about becoming Canada害羞草研究所檚 ambassador in Washington. Timing is always key but not always in your control, he said.
On the other hand, if the time has indeed arrived, the world can害羞草研究所檛 know it, Doer added.
害羞草研究所淭he minute you announce that you害羞草研究所檙e not running, you become weak and the media and public害羞草研究所檚 focus just shifts right away to who害羞草研究所檚 going to replace you,害羞草研究所� he said. 害羞草研究所淚t害羞草研究所檚 almost instantaneous.害羞草研究所�
That means Trudeau is running again until he decides he害羞草研究所檚 not. Even speculation with close cabinet colleagues about the possibility of a future resignation could easily leak and create havoc, the insiders said.
There is, of course, lots of chatter about his would-be successor. But within the party itself, there are no hands on his back. Cabinet ministers weary of deflecting the question have settled on their message.
害羞草研究所淲e (already) have a leader,害羞草研究所� Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland told a recent news conference in Ottawa as her fellow ministers all nodded enthusiastically in agreement.
Stepping down in defeat is more common than leaving while in office. Of the 22 prime ministers who held the office before Justin Trudeau, 12 resigned their post after losing an election.
Two died in office, including Canada害羞草研究所檚 first prime minister John A. Macdonald. Macdonald resigned as prime minister once, but stayed on as the leader of his party, and was re-elected as prime minister four years later.
Of the eight that stepped away of their own accord from both their party害羞草研究所檚 leadership and the prime minister害羞草研究所檚 post, three cited declining health, not a political motive.
For the other five, they left when they were ready to go.
Pierre Trudeau had been prime minister for more than 15 years total when he took his walk in the snow. If his flair for the dramatic made the decision seem like a spur-of-the-moment one, it was decidedly not.
In fact, it was carefully calculated, said Raymond Blake, a history professor at the University of Regina who is about to publish a new book on the speeches of Canada害羞草研究所檚 prime ministers.
害羞草研究所淓veryone knew he was going to resign but of course he had to do it on the 29th, in a leap year,害羞草研究所� Blake said.
害羞草研究所淚t was very much planned. He could have resigned on the 28th or the first of March. But that mystique, that celebrity, means you can害羞草研究所檛 do it on a day any mere mortal would.害羞草研究所�
More typically, there害羞草研究所檚 not much suspense before it happens.
When Brian Mulroney announced his exit in February 1993 after nearly nine years in office, he looked like a man who害羞草研究所檇 lost the vigour for the job.
In a journal entry published in Mulroney害羞草研究所檚 book, 害羞草研究所淢emoirs,害羞草研究所� he said it was long before he lost the constitutional referendum in 1992 that he had decided against leading the Tories in the next campaign.
The reason, he wrote in January 1993, about two months before the announcement, was simple.
害羞草研究所淚f you run again and win, either a majority or a minority government, what do you want to achieve? And my answer simply is, 害羞草研究所榤ore of the same,害羞草研究所櫤π卟菅芯克鶟 he wrote.
害羞草研究所淚 do not believe that honest answer to be adequate, so I will step aside.害羞草研究所�
When it happened, polls showed the Conservatives with just 21 per cent public support, compared with 49 per cent for the Liberals under Jean Chr茅tien.
Chr茅tien also left before losing an election, midway through his third majority government. He was facing a revolt from Paul Martin and Martin害羞草研究所檚 supporters. But he had decided by the time of the 2000 election not to seek a fourth term.
It wouldn害羞草研究所檛 be made public for another two years, and he would stay in the office for another 15 months before Martin was ultimately elected as the leader to replace him.
In January, in an interview with CTV, Chr茅tien said the decision to leave is a very 害羞草研究所減ersonal害羞草研究所� one.
If there are any commonalities among leaders who choose to leave, Doer said, it害羞草研究所檚 that they need to do it on their own terms, when they feel the time is right.
害羞草研究所淭here害羞草研究所檚 not a politician that doesn害羞草研究所檛 watch what happens to other politicians and how they make the transition,害羞草研究所� he said.
害羞草研究所淎nd not just how, but when.害羞草研究所�
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