On a bank of Villa Victoria reservoir, where in other years boats might have used them to anchor, 10 concrete blocks lie exposed to the sun. They should be under water, but that was before severe drought dropped the reservoir to the lowest level that Gabriel Bejarano has seen since he moved back to his grandfather害羞草研究所檚 farm a decade ago.

害羞草研究所淭he water is supposed to come up to here,害羞草研究所� Bejarano, a veterinarian, said as he pointed toward a fence a hundred yards back from the reservoir害羞草研究所檚 edge on a recent morning.

The dipping level on the north shore of this lake near Toluca is a major problem for Mexico City, about 77 miles (125 kilometers) to the west. Villa Victoria 害羞草研究所� about one-third its usual level this time of year 害羞草研究所� and two other drought-depleted reservoirs make up most of the Cutzamala system, which serves more than 20 million people and is at a historical low for this time of year.

Even more worrisome: Mexico害羞草研究所檚 rainy season is just about over, and its departure will end any realistic hope of refilling the reservoirs before next year. The Mexican National Water Commission on Tuesday announced water restrictions equivalent to about 8% of the Cutzamala system害羞草研究所檚 flow, and millions of users in Mexico City and Toluca fear even greater restrictions over the winter.

Mexico City gets more than a quarter of its water from those reservoirs. Most of the rest is drawn from the Valley of Mexico害羞草研究所檚 increasingly depleted aquifer. Neighborhoods without as many wells 害羞草研究所� thus more reliant on the reservoirs 害羞草研究所� will feel the shortages first and most acutely.

The drought hasn害羞草研究所檛 been limited to the valley. Seventy-five percent of Mexico is currently in drought, according to the most recent data from the country害羞草研究所檚 National Meteorological Service, including 害羞草研究所渆xtreme害羞草研究所� drought across much of Central and North Mexico and some 害羞草研究所渆xceptional害羞草研究所� drought in the states of Durango and San Luis Potos铆. The government has distributed emergency water by truck in Durango throughout the summer, plus almost 40 million liters of water across eight other drought-stricken states.

Meanwhile, navigation and tourism on Lake P谩tzcuaro, known for iconic Day of the Dead celebrations in the western state of Michoac谩n, risk drying up with increasingly low water levels.

In Mexico City, it害羞草研究所檚 not unusual in recent years to see some water shortages just before the rainy season. In spring 2021, Villa Victoria was at one-third its normal capacity in what described as the city害羞草研究所檚 . But summer rains largely alleviated that drought, part of a weather pattern where warmer months typically usher in low-pressure weather systems that bring rain.

But that pattern was disrupted this year as El Ni帽o conditions created a wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico, Tereza Cavazos, an oceanography professor with the Ensenada Center for Scientific Research in Baja California, told The Associated Press.

It is not possible to attribute the drier summer to climate change alone, said David K. Adams, an atmospheric scientist with Mexico害羞草研究所檚 National Autonomous University, but it is 害羞草研究所渆ntirely consistent害羞草研究所� with global patterns from a .

害羞草研究所淭he idea is that drying climates tend to get drier and wet climates get wetter,害羞草研究所� said Adams.

Studies have shown .

The window for rain to replenish the system is quickly closing, according to Manuel Perl贸 Cohen, an urban planner and urbanism professor at the National Autonomous University害羞草研究所檚 Institute of Social Research. The best of the rainy season is already over; Mexico害羞草研究所檚 November and December rainfall is typically less than a tenth of what falls in summer months.

害羞草研究所淚害羞草研究所檓 sure we害羞草研究所檙e going to have a shortage problem and I害羞草研究所檓 sure the city will get less water and many inhabitants will suffer from that,害羞草研究所� Perl贸 said.

Fixing Mexico City害羞草研究所檚 notoriously leaky water system would help in times of drought. Academics at the National Autonomous University in 2018 calculated the system leaks 5,680 gallons (21,500 liters) per second. Sheinbaum, now a leading presidential candidate, tried to address the leakage while mayor but progress has been slow.

Perl贸 said fixing what he called the world害羞草研究所檚 害羞草研究所渓argest and most complicated, sophisticated infrastructure for access to water害羞草研究所� will be expensive, and there hasn害羞草研究所檛 been funding to do so.

害羞草研究所淲e shouldn害羞草研究所檛 be facing these kinds of situations,害羞草研究所� he said. 害羞草研究所淲e have enough water and we害羞草研究所檙e not using it efficiently.害羞草研究所�

Some advocates have suggested restoring Mexico City害羞草研究所檚 last remaining natural watercourse, the Magdalena River, but that would have to contend with pollution along the river害羞草研究所檚 entire length from its source west of the capital.

Much of the city relies on wells that tap into the valley害羞草研究所檚 groundwater. In response to the cuts on Tuesday, the government said it would drill new wells. But it may be hard to find enough water that way, especially as less water is returned to the valley害羞草研究所檚 overexploited aquifer.

害羞草研究所淢exico City is a monster; it害羞草研究所檚 a beast,害羞草研究所� said Adams. 害羞草研究所淎ll the asphalt, all the plastic in the gutters means that water disappears. It never enters the system害羞草研究所� by reaching the aquifer, he said.

The government is also working on a new water treatment plant at the Mad铆n reservoir, just northwest of Mexico City, which will add 132 gallons (500 liters) per second to the Cutzamala system.

害羞草研究所淭hat害羞草研究所檚 not a medium- and long-term solution,害羞草研究所� said Perl贸. 害羞草研究所淲e cannot be living on the edge all the time.害羞草研究所�

Another solution could be local-level water capture.

Working with Mexico害羞草研究所檚 Environment Department, Isla Urbana, a group working to improve water access in the city, has installed 10,000 rain collection systems house-by-house across the traditionally underserved southern boroughs of Tlalpan and Xochimilco. The systems gather, filter and treat rain falling on a building before storing it in a personal tank.

Emilio Becerril, Isla Urbana project manager, said such rainwater harvesting could 害羞草研究所減ermanently change the water access situation害羞草研究所� in the face of climate change, aging infrastructure and government inertia.

But a lasting solution needs institutional changes, he said.

害羞草研究所淓ven if you build thousands of systems, there are thousands of houses being built 害羞草研究所� more and more extractive,害羞草研究所� said Becerril.

Perl贸害羞草研究所檚 department at the university built a four-hectare rain capture system into a playground in the southeast borough of Iztapalapa in 2018. Last month Mayor Mart铆 Batres proposed to build thousands of rainwater harvesting systems into schools across the capital, a program Perl贸 hopes doesn害羞草研究所檛 succumb to the same money issues as previous government water plans.

Becerril also wants to see wastewater reuse, and new infrastructure to separate stormwater from waste: an idea even he admits straddles the line between 害羞草研究所渉opeful害羞草研究所� and 害羞草研究所渄elusional.害羞草研究所�

害羞草研究所淩ain patterns are changing. It害羞草研究所檚 the first year I personally have seen that clearly,害羞草研究所� said Becerril. 害羞草研究所淲e害羞草研究所檝e gotten to the urgency point.害羞草研究所�

Bejarano, the veterinarian living on the edge of the Villa Victoria reservoir, said he worries less about water for his grandfather害羞草研究所檚 farm and more about younger generations like his son, who wore a Sonic the Hedgehog hoodie as his father carried him around the property in one arm.

害羞草研究所淲e all have children,害羞草研究所� he said. 害羞草研究所淲e害羞草研究所檙e all affected, especially when it comes to water.害羞草研究所�

___

Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP害羞草研究所檚 climate initiative . The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Daniel Shailer, The Associated Press