Alberta is investing in artificial intelligence in an effort to predict where a wildfire may ignite before it happens, a move its tech partners say could save up to $5 million a year.

Ed Trenchard, provincial wildfire management specialist, does long-term planning with communities and industry on how to mitigate risk, and also works on the ground.

害羞草研究所淲hen we have large escaped fires like we had this year, I actually go out to the fires and plan where resources are going (in order) to fight the fires, and inform communities of potential evacuations,害羞草研究所� he said.

害羞草研究所淚n the past and currently, we know what we have for fuels (like trees), we know what害羞草研究所檚 available to burn, and we know through our weather forecasting how bad the weather is going to be.害羞草研究所�

Federal officials have said Canada has seen an unprecedented wildfire season this year, with nearly 179,000 square kilometres burned as of late September, versus the 10-year average of about 2,700 for that time of year. In Alberta this year, fires forced the evacuation of several communities, including Edson and Drayton Valley in the west and Fort Chipewyan in the northeast.

Trenchard said looking at the interaction between the fuels and the weather 害羞草研究所渒ind of害羞草研究所� predicts the risk to an area.

害羞草研究所淭he problem that we害羞草研究所檝e been faced with is we don害羞草研究所檛 know where the next fire is going to start,害羞草研究所� he said.

Alberta害羞草研究所檚 wildfire agency has partnered with software company AltaML to try to predict where fires are going to start the day before they happen so they can better plan resources.

The partnership is part of a larger grants program called GovLab, which was founded as a collaboration between AltaML, the Alberta government and Mitacs, a non-profit innovation hub.

害羞草研究所淚t害羞草研究所檚 a next-day fire-likelihood forecast,害羞草研究所� said Graham Erickson, senior lead machine learning developer with AltaML, which uses Microsoft害羞草研究所檚 Azure AI technology to build its own software.

Erickson said wildfire officers put people, equipment, aircraft and other resources in place as part of pre-suppression efforts in case of a fire breakout.

害羞草研究所淪o every day, they have duty officers whose job is to figure out for the next day, what pre-suppression resources they have on retainer,害羞草研究所� Erickson said. 害羞草研究所淚n the past, this was purely based on fire severity.害羞草研究所�

He said Alberta has historically had a 害羞草研究所渞isk averse害羞草研究所� culture and would spend a lot of money on resources that don害羞草研究所檛 end up being used, costing $2 million to $5 million a year. The new software could change that, he said.

害羞草研究所淚t害羞草研究所檚 developed with machine learning, which is a subtype of AI technology that basically analyzes tons of data that they害羞草研究所檝e collected over the past couple of decades about fires in the province,害羞草研究所� Erickson said.

Trenchard said 害羞草研究所渨orking with AltaML has given us an opportunity to bridge the knowledge gap from an experienced person to maybe a less experienced duty officer able to have that tool available to them.害羞草研究所�

The AI software provides additional information to duty officers, enabling them to make crucial decisions more quickly.

Trenchard said Alberta keeps an intensive database going back decades of where fires have started, what the weather conditions were at the time, what type of trees were burning and how the fire started.

害羞草研究所淯sing that history, combined with weather forecasting, that害羞草研究所檚 what the model is using essentially,害羞草研究所� he said. 害羞草研究所淎nd it害羞草研究所檚 building on itself, so every calendar year, we dump that last calendar year of data into the black box of AI to improve the prediction over time.害羞草研究所�

Trenchard said right now, the predictions have shortcomings in location accuracy.

害羞草研究所淭he future vision of this is actually going to be like a pinpoint location on a map for where the next fires are going to start tomorrow, and then we will place resources close or as close as we can to those predictions.害羞草研究所�

John Weigelt, national technology officer at Microsoft Canada, said the company is partnering with a number of governments and organizations across the country to adopt AI. He said this is an attempt to solve 害羞草研究所渢he big challenges that we害羞草研究所檙e facing in Canada.害羞草研究所�

Weigelt added Microsoft has partnered with the City of Kelowna in the B.C. Interior in a similar capacity to try and battle local forest fires.

害羞草研究所淭his technology has matured dramatically over time, and people have got more comfortable with how to deploy it,害羞草研究所� he said.

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