When the University of British Columbia announced the launch of Vantage College in 2013, the school said it envisioned the program for fee-paying international students would have enrolment of 1,000 by August 2016.

The program would target first-year students who otherwise failed to meet UBC害羞草研究所檚 English requirements, providing them with extra language lessons in addition to their degree courses.

It would house the students 害羞草研究所� whose fees are now about $60,000 per year 害羞草研究所� in a $127 million facility designed by world-renowned architecture firm Perkins&Will, some of its dorm rooms featuring sweeping ocean views.

However, Vantage害羞草研究所檚 enrolment is currently 172 students, having declined every year since reaching 498 in 2018-2019.

The struggles of Vantage College reflect the unpredictable nature of the lucrative international education sector, as Canadian universities find themselves beholden to geopolitical and economic shifts.

There have been massive changes in the sector, with study permits for Chinese students in Canada plunging 40 per cent since 2018. Permits for students from India 害羞草研究所� where English is far more widely spoken 害羞草研究所� have meanwhile doubled.

UBC spokesman Matthew Ramsey said in a written statement that 害羞草研究所渨ork is underway害羞草研究所� to assess the Vantage model.

He said the enrolment shortfalls 害羞草研究所渃ome as (international) students are increasingly entering faculties directly and using faculty-specific programming to enhance their English-language skills.害羞草研究所�

The federal government said that in 2022 international students contributed more than $22 billion to the Canadian economy, greater than the contribution of auto parts or lumber exports.

In British Columbia, statistics from the province害羞草研究所檚 Council for International Education showed the sector generated $330 million in government revenue in 2019, creating more than 53,000 jobs.

害羞草研究所淚t害羞草研究所檚 a big sector,害羞草研究所� said BCCIE executive director Randall Martin, noting the industry covers everything from K-12 education and two-year transfer colleges to language schools and degrees at large universities.

Martin said international students have played an integral role in 害羞草研究所渒eeping the light on害羞草研究所� for Canadian universities in rural and remote areas, allowing schools to offer mandated courses they would otherwise struggle to provide.

害羞草研究所淚n many ways, the sector is a real success. It害羞草研究所檚 over $7 billion coming into the provincial economy because of international education, and that includes tuition, housing, accommodations, meals 害羞草研究所� and, yes, I think it害羞草研究所檚 fair to say that the international student numbers will follow geopolitical trends.害羞草研究所�

The industry in Canada 害羞草研究所� as in most popular international education destinations 害羞草研究所� largely relies on the high number of students from two countries: China and India.

Statistics Canada data show that students from the world害羞草研究所檚 two most populous countries accounted for more than half of the almost 550,000 study permits issued by Canada in 2022.

But permits given to Chinese students have fallen from 85,000 in 2018 to just short of 52,000 last year.

A similar slide has been reported by the BCCIE, with the number of Chinese international students in B.C. down from 50,000 in 2015 to 29,670 last year.

Martin said the decline began after the legal saga of Meng Wanzhou, the Chinese tech executive who was arrested in late 2018 and held in Vancouver until 2021, triggering a deep decline in China-Canada relations.

害羞草研究所淚 think Canada was portrayed as not a safe place for Chinese students in the Chinese media, and our numbers did go down a bit,害羞草研究所� he said.

Karin Fischer, who writes a weekly international education newsletter called Latitudes, said while pandemic travel restrictions made the biggest dent in student numbers, the number of Chinese students in the West has not rebounded in the way numbers from India or elsewhere have.

Fischer said higher travel costs and a reluctance among Chinese families to endure lengthy separations from children post-pandemic are contributing factors. But deteriorating economic conditions in China 害羞草研究所� reducing both students害羞草研究所� ability to pay and find work after graduating 害羞草研究所� may be a key reason their numbers haven害羞草研究所檛 recovered.

害羞草研究所淕oing to study in another country is an enormous investment, even for a middle-class Chinese or Indian family,害羞草研究所� Fischer said. 害羞草研究所淲hat is the expectation that they have about earning that degree? What is their return on investment?

害羞草研究所淚 wonder if some (Chinese) families are thinking, 害羞草研究所楪od, should we spend all this money up front if we害羞草研究所檙e worried about (whether) our child is going to graduate and not have a job to come back to?害羞草研究所櫤π卟菅芯克鶟

Tuition for Vantage College in 2023-2024 costs around $60,000, while other international students at UBC pay from around $42,000 to $58,000.

Domestic students害羞草研究所� tuitions range from around $6,000 to $9,000 a year.

The drop in Chinese students, Fischer said, tends to disproportionately affect Vantage College and other similar 害羞草研究所減athway害羞草研究所� programs for students needing English-language support.

The University of South Florida shuttered a similar pathway centre for international students recently because it wasn害羞草研究所檛 profitable, Fischer said.

害羞草研究所淚f you don害羞草研究所檛 have the volume of students, they害羞草研究所檙e really challenging,害羞草研究所� she said of pathway programs. 害羞草研究所淎nd they worked particularly well for Chinese students because they had that combination of students who needed the extra language but who were generally academically prepared 害羞草研究所� and who could afford to pay for that.害羞草研究所�

Indian international students tend to be proficient in English and do not require pathway programs, Fischer said.

Ramsey said UBC originally built the 1,049-room Orchard Commons complex to house both Vantage害羞草研究所檚 students and domestic first-year students, boosting integration and helping 害羞草研究所渃reate a positive experience for all students.害羞草研究所�

A recent visit to the complex害羞草研究所檚 cafeteria at lunch time showed little sign of students in need of language support, with fluent English the language of choice.

Ayumi Yamamoto, a Japanese exchange student who started attending Vantage in September, said she does not live at Orchard Commons but at nearby Fairview Crescent.

She described Orchard Commons as 害羞草研究所渘ot crowded害羞草研究所� and offering ample space for her and other Vantage students.

害羞草研究所淭hey always have empty seats, at least one of them,害羞草研究所� Yamamoto said.

While the number of Chinese students have fallen across Canada, overall international student numbers are on the rise, largely due to students from India.

Statistics Canada showed study permits issued to Indian students rose from 107,000 in 2018 to almost 226,000 last year. In B.C., their number went from 12,040 in 2015 to almost 75,000 in 2022.

Martin said much of that growth stemmed from immigration policy changes that allowed students seeking a two-year diploma to stay in Canada and work here for three years, opening the door to permanent residency.

But recent strains between Canada and India over the killing of a Sikh separatist leader in Surrey, B.C., have created more uncertainty. After Prime Minister Justin Trudeau last month said New Delhi may have been involved in the killing, India issued a travel advisory that warned of violence against Indian nationals and students in Canada.

Fischer said there is a precedent in Canada害羞草研究所檚 dispute with Saudi Arabia over the kingdom害羞草研究所檚 arrest of human rights activists in 2018. Permits issued to Saudi students fell from 5,080 in 2017 to 1,185 in 2019.

But Fischer said Saudi Arabia had been paying for students to go abroad and pulled their scholarships during the dispute.

害羞草研究所淎 place like India, it is almost entirely students paying their own way,害羞草研究所� she said. 害羞草研究所淪o it害羞草研究所檚 hard to know (of India害羞草研究所檚 impact) because it害羞草研究所檚 individual students making all sorts of individual choices.害羞草研究所�

Canadian universities have been looking to diversify their international student populations beyond India and China.

Graham Barber, assistant director of international relations at Universities Canada, a national advocacy body for universities, said recent outreach has focused on countries such as Mexico, Nigeria, Vietnam, Brazil and the Philippines 害羞草研究所� places with growing middle-class populations and young people willing and able to travel to study.

害羞草研究所淲e (have) world-class institutions that are really, really good at this,害羞草研究所� Barber said about finding new markets. 害羞草研究所淥ne of the great things about being in Canada is there害羞草研究所檚 such a diverse population here. They really have those people-to-people ties to be able to pivot quickly to different areas and to work with new partnerships.害羞草研究所�

UBC害羞草研究所檚 Ramsey said while the Vantage model may be under assessment, its supportive approach to international students isn害羞草研究所檛 going away.

害羞草研究所淚t害羞草研究所檚 too soon to say what form that may take in the years ahead,害羞草研究所� he said. 害羞草研究所淲hat we can say is there is a need for this type of instructional model on our campuses now and moving forward.害羞草研究所�