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Conservatives take Liberal stronghold in tight Toronto byelection win

Don Stewart eked out the win by just 590 votes over Liberal Leslie Church
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In a stunning early morning upset, Conservative candidate Don Stewart secured a byelection victory in the longtime Liberal stronghold of Toronto 聴 St. Paul害羞草研究所檚. A Conservative supporter shows voting results on his phone at an federal byelection election night event for Stewart in Toronto, on Monday, June 24, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young

Hours after Canadians went to bed disappointed by a Stanley Cup loss Monday night, the Conservatives scored a stunning byelection upset to win in the longtime Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul害羞草研究所檚.

Conservative candidate Don Stewart eked out the win by just 590 votes over Liberal Leslie Church in an early morning upset, yanking away a riding the governing Liberals have held for more than 30 years.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre demanded the prime minister call a snap election after what he described as a 害羞草研究所渟hocking upset害羞草研究所 on social media Tuesday morning.

害羞草研究所淗ere is the verdict: Trudeau can害羞草研究所檛 go on like this. He must call a carbon tax election now,害羞草研究所 Poilievre said on X.

Stewart trailed Church for hours overnight as poll workers slowly counted ballots that were stacked with independent candidates, thanks to a protest group trying to make a point about the first-past-the-post system.

Stewart tried to sound upbeat when he visited his campaign office at around 11:30 p.m., but he didn害羞草研究所檛 quite succeed as the polls showed his opponent in a steady lead.

害羞草研究所淟et害羞草研究所檚 not give it up,害羞草研究所 he said.

Both Stewart and Church had closed up their campaign parties hours before the final results, when it became clear the vote count was going to extend into the early morning hours.

The results flipped just before 4 a.m. when Tories jumped into the lead with just three polls left to be counted.

The results represent a massive victory for Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives, who haven害羞草研究所檛 won a single seat in Toronto proper since 2011.

Church said she plans to run again as the Liberal candidate in the next general election.

害羞草研究所淵esterday voters in Toronto-St. Paul害羞草研究所檚 sent us a clear message, that they want us to re-earn their trust,害羞草研究所 Church said in a statement posted to X Tuesday morning.

害羞草研究所淭hey want a government that fulfils its promise to be there for them.害羞草研究所

The race was considered a must-win for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and the loss is a massive blow that could trigger calls for him to step down after 11 years as Liberal leader.

The crushing defeat for the Liberals is a kick to a party that is already down in the polls. The vote proves the polls reflect reality, said Scott Reid, who worked as the director of communications for former prime minister Paul Martin.

害羞草研究所淚 don害羞草研究所檛 think it害羞草研究所檚 possible to overstate how consequential this byelection loss is,害羞草研究所 said Reid, who woke to the news Tuesday morning.

害羞草研究所淚ts implications could be vast for the government, for the prime minister, for the timing of the next election. I mean, this is a Yahtzee.害羞草研究所

Typically, when Conservatives do well in urban ridings, it害羞草研究所檚 because the New Democrats have siphoned off support from left-wing voters, said Ginny Roth, a Conservative strategist who served as Poilievre害羞草研究所檚 director of communications during his leadership race.

That wasn害羞草研究所檛 true for Monday害羞草研究所檚 byelection, when the Liberals and Conservatives went head-to-head and the NDP candidate garnered only 11 per cent of the votes.

But if the same holds true for other seats across the country, it could change the strategic dynamics of the next election, Roth said Tuesday.

害羞草研究所淚t害羞草研究所檚 a really buoyant, exciting prospect for Conservatives who, I think, now can point to a very broad coalition of support,害羞草研究所 she said.

The contest was Stewart害羞草研究所檚 first election. The financial executive has close ties to the Conservative party as a longtime organizer and a former colleague of Jenni Byrne, an informal Poilievre adviser.

Toronto-St. Paul害羞草研究所檚, in the city害羞草研究所檚 midtown area, includes some of Toronto害羞草研究所檚 wealthiest addresses as well as an above-average number of renters, and one of the largest concentrations of Jewish voters in the country.

Carolyn Bennett, the former Liberal cabinet minister whose resignation in January triggered this byelection, won the seat nine times for the Liberals, and by more than 20 percentage points every time except once.

But the Liberal campaign was challenged by a cranky electorate that lost patience with Trudeau amid soaring inflation, unaffordable housing and a rise in hate crimes since the start of the Israel-Hamas war.

Conservatives appealed to the riding害羞草研究所檚 Jewish community during the race, urging them to vote for the Tory candidate to send a message to Trudeau about what they describe as silence in the face of a rise in antisemitism.





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