Food prices will keep rising in 2024, though at a slower pace, according to the latest Food Price Report.
The 14th annual report by Dalhousie University, the University of British Columbia, the University of Guelph and the University of Saskatchewan predicted that food prices will rise between 2.5 per cent and 4.5 per cent next year as inflation continues to moderate.
However, grocers will be in fierce competition next year to try and win back loyalty from customers who have been shopping around more to try and save money, said project lead and director of Dalhousie害羞草研究所檚 Agri-Food Analytics Lab Sylvain Charlebois.
害羞草研究所淚 think loyalty is going to be a huge battleground,害羞草研究所� he said.
This competition could lead to mild deflation on the prices of some essential food items, he said, even as overall food prices will continue to rise.
害羞草研究所淗ow do you get people to come back? (With) rebates, discounts. And that leads to price wars.害羞草研究所�
Some categories are predicted to experience faster price rises than others in 2024.
Bakery, meat and vegetables are forecast to see prices go up the most, atbetween five and seven per cent, the report said. Prices at restaurants and for seafood products will rise between three and five per cent, while dairy and fruit will see prices rise between one and three per cent.
But despite the continued rise in food prices this year, researchers for the report found that in 2023, customers actually spent less in dollar amounts than last year害羞草研究所檚 report predicted, as they cut back on spending at restaurants and at grocery stores.
The estimated total annual spending tally in 2023 for a family of four 害羞草研究所攖wo parents, a teenage boy and a pre-teen girl 害羞草研究所� was $15,595.40, almost $700 less than last year害羞草研究所檚 report predicted.
This finding was 害羞草研究所渁 bit of a shocker,害羞草研究所� said Charlebois. While it was expected that Canadians would cut back on spending as shelter costs went up amid interest rate hikes, the scale at which they cut back was a surprise to the researchers, he said.
害羞草研究所淚t points to how extremely challenging 2023 was to a lot of people,害羞草研究所� he said.
害羞草研究所淚nterest rates went up so quickly, it didn害羞草研究所檛 give time for households to adapt.害羞草研究所�
The report predicted that same family of four will spend around $700 more on food in 2024 than they did this year, an estimated $16,297.20.
In 2024, the outsized food inflation that害羞草研究所檚 persisted for the past few years will finally come to an end, Charlebois predicted, returning to a more normal level as overall inflation does the same.
The Bank of Canada hit pause on interest rate hikes in the final months of the year as its policy continues to work its way through the economy. Inflation isn害羞草研究所檛 yet at the central bank害羞草研究所檚 target rate, hitting 3.1 per cent in October, but is a far cry from its peak of 8.1 per cent in June 2022. Grocery inflation, meanwhile, was at 5.4 per cent in October, lower than September but continuing to be elevated compared with the overall inflation rate.
Climate change is expected to continue influencing the prices of some food items in 2024, the report predicts, especially as climate-related events become more frequent and hit harder.
Right now, climate events are affecting the prices of three food products in particular, which Charlebois said will likely continue to rise in the coming months.
Firstly, beef prices are on the rise as drought in the Midwest and prairies has led farmers to cull their herds, said Charlebois.
Meanwhile, the price of cocoa is being driven up by conditions in Ghana and the Ivory Coast, while the price of sugar is rising due to weather affecting sugarcane production in some countries, Charlebois said.
害羞草研究所淚f you like dark chocolate, I would buy it now.害羞草研究所�
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