Anxious Alberta ranchers praying for rain got their wish this week, but it may not be enough to stop the ongoing decline in Canadian cattle production.

The moisture that fell on parts of drought-parched Alberta came as a welcome reprieve to the hundreds of cattle farmers who have seen their pastures wither and their water supplies dry up this June.

But a few inches of rain won害羞草研究所檛 be enough to cut it in much of Canadian cattle country, which is still trying to dig its way out of a significant moisture deficit.

害羞草研究所淚 think this is the driest I害羞草研究所檝e ever seen it,害羞草研究所� said Bob Lowe, a rancher and feedlot operator from the Nanton area of southern Alberta.

害羞草研究所淭he grass started this spring, and came up a little bit, and then it just turned around and died. It害羞草研究所檚 supposed to be green this time of year, but it害羞草研究所檚 just grey-brown.害羞草研究所�

According to Agriculture Canada害羞草研究所檚 Drought Monitor, 82 per cent of the agricultural regions of the three prairie provinces were either 害羞草研究所渁bnormally dry害羞草研究所� or in 害羞草研究所渕oderate to extreme drought害羞草研究所� as of the end of May.

Some ranchers have been spending hours every day this spring hauling water by truck or trailer to their cattle after their watering holes completely dried up, said Ryder Lee, general manager of the Canadian Cattle Association.

害羞草研究所淥r they害羞草研究所檙e filling dugouts from other places with pipelines and pumps,害羞草研究所� Lee said.

害羞草研究所淭here害羞草研究所檚 lots of creativity and ingenuity in the industry, but all of that takes a toll on people.害羞草研究所�

It also takes a toll on an industry that has already been steadily shrinking for years. Last year, the size of the Canadian cattle herd fell to 12.3 million animals 害羞草研究所� the lowest level recorded since July 1, 1988.

The 2.8 per cent year-over-year reduction was in large part due to the after-effects of an extremely harsh drought on the prairies in 2021. As crops withered and feed prices skyrocketed, many ranchers sold their cattle for slaughter rather than holding onto them for breeding.

That could happen again this year, and at an even larger scale, said Rob Somerville, who has a cattle farm in east-central Alberta, near the town of Innisfail.

害羞草研究所淭here is a train of thought that people who may have hung on last time, this time, will sell,害羞草研究所� Somerville said.

He added that some producers might have hesitated to sell in 2021 because cattle prices at the time were low. But as cattle numbers in North America have continued to shrink, prices have increased, hitting all-time records this spring.

害羞草研究所淛ust about everybody I害羞草研究所檝e spoken to has already prepared a list of the cows they害羞草研究所檙e going to sell. These people won害羞草研究所檛 be leaving the industry, but they害羞草研究所檙e certainly planning a herd reduction.害羞草研究所�

South of the border, U.S. cattle inventory is also down four per cent year-over-year due to increased heifer slaughter. According to a report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, roughly 69 per cent of the U.S. cattle herd as of December 2022 was located in drought-stricken areas, leading to the largest contraction of the North American cattle herd in a decade.

Other catastrophes in the last two decades 害羞草研究所� including the BSE (mad cow) crisis and the 2009 financial crisis 害羞草研究所� also led ranchers to downsize their herds or exit the industry entirely.

As a result, according to Statistics Canada, there are 25 per cent fewer beef cows in Canada now than there were in 2005.

害羞草研究所淎fter a while it害羞草研究所檚 not just an individual farm-by-farm thing, it害羞草研究所檚 an industry issue. And that has far wider implications,害羞草研究所� Somerville said, adding that fewer cows could cause ripple effects all the way down the value chain 害羞草研究所� potentially leading to lost jobs at feedlots, at meat-packing plants and more.

害羞草研究所淭his is a big contributor to the economy that we害羞草研究所檙e talking about.害羞草研究所�

Winnipeg-based cattle markets analyst Jerry Klassen said he believes one or two good rains could save the industry from wide-spread liquidation of herds this year.

害羞草研究所淵ou can still get one good hay crop in Alberta if you get timely rains from now moving forward,害羞草研究所� Klassen said.

害羞草研究所淎nd you害羞草研究所檝e got these high prices. If the farmer can maintain or increase his herd, he害羞草研究所檚 going to reap the rewards over the next two or three years.害羞草研究所�

But Somerville said multiple years of dry conditions have left some ranchers feeling that they害羞草研究所檙e 害羞草研究所渞unning out of tricks they can pull out of the hat.害羞草研究所�

害羞草研究所淭here害羞草研究所檚 a lot of producers who have been hanging on as long as they can and they may decide now is the time to get out of the industry,害羞草研究所� he said.

害羞草研究所淚t害羞草研究所檚 just been too many struggles, for too long.害羞草研究所�

Amanda Stephenson, The Canadian Press

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