Concerns are growing that Russia will not extend a United Nations-brokered deal that allows grain to flow from Ukraine to parts of the world struggling with hunger, with ships no longer heading to the war-torn country害羞草研究所檚 Black Sea ports and food exports dwindling.
Turkey and the U.N. last summer to ease a global food crisis, along with a separate agreement with Russia to facilitate shipments of its food and fertilizer. , though data shows it has been exporting record amounts of wheat.
Russian officials repeatedly say there are no grounds for extending the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which is up for its fourth renewal Monday. It害羞草研究所檚 something they have threatened before 害羞草研究所� then have twice gone on to instead of the four months outlined in the agreement.
The U.N. and others are striving to keep the fragile deal intact, with Ukraine and Russia both , barley, vegetable oil and other food products that countries in Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia rely on. It has allowed Ukraine to ship 32.8 million metric tons (36.2 million tons) of grain, more than half of it to developing nations.
The deal has helped like wheat after they surged to record highs following the invasion last year, but that .
Russia害羞草研究所檚 exit would cut off a source for World Food Program aid for countries at risk of famine, including Somalia, Ethiopia and Afghanistan, and compound food security problems in vulnerable places struggling with conflict, economic crisis and drought.
害羞草研究所淩ussia gets a lot of good public will for continuing this agreement,害羞草研究所� said Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute. 害羞草研究所淭here would be a cost to pay in terms of public perception and global goodwill, I think, as far as Russia is concerned害羞草研究所� if the deal isn害羞草研究所檛 extended.
The amount of grain leaving Ukraine already has dropped, with Russia accused of slowing by Russian, Ukrainian, U.N. and Turkish officials and refusing to allow more vessels to join the initiative.
害羞草研究所� meant to ensure vessels carry only food and not weapons that could aid either side 害羞草研究所� have fallen from a peak of 11 in October to just over two in June.
That has led to a decline in grain exports, from a high of 4.2 million metric tons in October to 1.3 million in May, a low for the year-old initiative. They rose to 2 million in June as shipment sizes grew.
If the deal isn害羞草研究所檛 extended, 害羞草研究所渢he countries that had relied on Ukraine for their imports are going to have to look at other sources for imports, very likely Russia, which is something that I imagine Russia was intending,害羞草研究所� said Caitlin Welsh, director of the Global Food and Water Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The to stick with the initiative, with spokesman Stephane Dujarric saying Monday that top officials are 害羞草研究所渄oing whatever we can to ensure the continuation of all of the agreements.害羞草研究所�
Ukraine害羞草研究所檚 Infrastructure Ministry said Tuesday on Facebook that the final two ships are loading grain 害羞草研究所� heading for Egypt 害羞草研究所� while 29 vessels are waiting in the waters off Turkey because Russia has refused to allow their inspection.
害羞草研究所淯krainian agricultural products play a significant role in global food security,害羞草研究所� Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said. But 害羞草研究所渇or the past few months, the grain corridor has been practically closed.害羞草研究所�
Russia insists the agreement hasn害羞草研究所檛 worked for its own exports, blaming Western sanctions for hindering financing and insurance.
While sanctions don害羞草研究所檛 effect food and fertilizer, Moscow is seeking carveouts from restrictions on the Russian Agricultural Bank, as well as movement on its ammonia, a , to a Ukrainian Black Sea port. But the ammonia pipeline has been damaged in the war, the U.N. said.
害羞草研究所淭here is still time to implement the part of the agreements that pertains to our country. So far, this part has not been fulfilled,害羞草研究所� Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters last week. 害羞草研究所淎nd so at the moment, unfortunately, we don害羞草研究所檛 see any particular grounds for extending this deal.害羞草研究所�
Russia, however, has increased its wheat exports to all-time highs following a large harvest. Shipments went from 33 million metric tons in 2021 to 44 million metric tons last year to expectations of 46 million this year, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Meanwhile, Ukraine害羞草研究所檚 shipments have fallen by around 60%, from 19 million tons in 2021 to predictions of about 7 or 8 million tons this year 害羞草研究所� a big hit to its .
With less from Ukraine and more from Russia, the world害羞草研究所檚 available wheat stocks are the same as in 2021 害羞草研究所� and there is enough of it to go around, said Peter Meyer, head of grain analytics at S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Europe and Argentina are expected to boost wheat shipments, while Brazil saw a banner year for corn, of which Ukraine is also a major supplier. Meyer wouldn害羞草研究所檛 expect more than a temporary bump to grain prices on world markets if the Black Sea deal isn害羞草研究所檛 renewed.
害羞草研究所淢arkets just adapt extremely quickly,害羞草研究所� he said. 害羞草研究所淭he fact of the matter is that the global grain markets, they balance each other out.害羞草研究所�
Ukraine can send its food by land or , so it wouldn害羞草研究所檛 be completely cut off from selling grain, but those routes have a lower capacity than sea shipments and have .
害羞草研究所淲e are a cat running out of lives in this situation,害羞草研究所� said Simon Evenett, professor of international trade and economic development at the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland. 害羞草研究所淚t only takes one thing to go wrong before we害羞草研究所檙e into trouble.害羞草研究所�
While the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization害羞草研究所檚 food price index has fallen below the when Russian troops entered Ukraine, food costs were already high because of COVID-19, conflict and drought.
Then Russia害羞草研究所檚 war helped push up the costs to produce food 害羞草研究所� including energy, fertilizer and transportation.
In developing nations increasingly relying on imported food, from Kenya to Syria, because they are paying in U.S. dollars.
害羞草研究所淲ith approximately 80% of East Africa害羞草研究所檚 grain being exported from Russia and Ukraine, over 50 million people across East Africa are facing hunger, and food prices have shot up by nearly 40% this year,害羞草研究所� said Shashwat Saraf, the International Rescue Committee害羞草研究所檚 regional emergency director for East Africa.
害羞草研究所淚t is vital for the international community to not only forge a long-term deal but also build durable solutions to tackle food insecurity,害羞草研究所� he said.
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