Calls have intensified for Justin Trudeau to resign as head of the party he almost single-handedly pulled back from the brink after a decimating electoral defeat in 2011.

Still Trudeau has been steadfast in his intention to lead the party into the next election.

But even as several former elected Liberals, party faithful and strategists declare it害羞草研究所檚 time for the prime minister to step aside for fear of dragging the party down along with his personal polling numbers, many also admit a Liberal leadership race would be a risky and messy affair.

The party hasn害羞草研究所檛 selected a new leader since 2013, when the Liberals changed the rules to give ordinary citizens a bigger say in who would take the reins of the party.

It was part of the board害羞草研究所檚 害羞草研究所渞oad map to renewal害羞草研究所� plan to rebuild the party.

The changes allowed a political movement to form behind Trudeau, who won the race easily and reinvigorated the party after a time of crisis.

害羞草研究所淚t doesn害羞草研究所檛 matter to me if you were a Chr茅tien Liberal, or a Turner Liberal, or a Martin Liberal or any other kind of Liberal,害羞草研究所� Trudeau told the cheering crowd after being voted in.

害羞草研究所淭he era of hyphenated Liberals ends right here, right now, tonight.害羞草研究所�

His leadership did usher in a new era of Liberal unity, but Conservative strategist Ginny Roth said the party was also remade in his image.

害羞草研究所淭he Liberal party was kind of rebuilt around Trudeau as a bit of a cult of personality, and that worked when he was popular,害羞草研究所� said Roth, who served as Pierre Poilievre害羞草研究所檚 director of communications during his leadership race.

Now that it害羞草研究所檚 no longer true, the very identity of the party is at stake.

害羞草研究所淚 think a lot of Liberals are concerned about what a leadership race could mean, because there害羞草研究所檚 no real establishment.害羞草研究所�

If Trudeau were to step aside before the next election, the party would not only need to find a new leader before the next election but also redefine what it means to be a Liberal.

害羞草研究所淭he Liberal party brand today has become synonymous with Justin Trudeau,害羞草研究所� said Andrew Perez, a longtime Liberal and strategist with Perez Strategies.

He recently called for Trudeau to resign, but admits it害羞草研究所檚 a tall order when the next election is scheduled for less than a year and a half from now. It害羞草研究所檚 a risk, he said, especially under the rules that brought Trudeau to the head of the party.

The goal was to make it easier for people to vote in the Liberal leader by allowing them to join the party as a 害羞草研究所渟upporter,害羞草研究所� so they could vote without having to pay for a membership.

In 2016, they went even further, eliminating party membership fees altogether.

At the time the party said it was to make the Liberals more 害羞草研究所渙pen and accessible.害羞草研究所�

But some strategists say it also makes the next leadership race susceptible to inference by special interest groups.

害羞草研究所淚t害羞草研究所檚 obvious how the system could be taken advantage of in a leadership race,害羞草研究所� Perez said. He害羞草研究所檚 particularly concerned about the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and the divisive effect it has had on Canadian politics.

害羞草研究所淚 do worry about the role of special interests, who can mobilize around one issue and decide on the basis of one issue, who will lead the party.害羞草研究所�

While some decisions about a leadership race could be made by the party害羞草研究所檚 board, bigger changes about the membership would require an amendment to the party constitution. That would have to go through a membership vote.

There are discussions underway to hold a party convention next spring 害羞草研究所� too late to change the rules if there is a snap leadership race.

The timeline would be tough enough just to get a new leader in place before Canadians go to the polls, though several Liberals 害羞草研究所� including Perez 害羞草研究所� say the crunch isn害羞草研究所檛 insurmountable.

Leadership races usually last months, at least. Officially the leadership race when Trudeau won lasted just five months, but candidates had been gearing up for it for nearly two years.

It also took two years for the Conservatives to vote in a new leader after Stephen Harper害羞草研究所檚 resignation after the 2015 election. The race that brought Pierre Poilievre to the head of the Conservatives lasted eight months.

All of those people had the luxury of time, something on short supply currently. The next election is at most 15 months away. Anyone elected leader would be thrust into a near immediate election.

In Ottawa, many have invoked former prime minister Kim Campbell as a cautionary tale. She replaced a very unpopular Brian Mulroney as the Progressive Conservative party leader and prime minister in June 1993 and lasted just six months.

She was roundly defeated in the 1993 election and the party was left with only two seats in the House of Commons.

Scott Reid, who worked as the director of communications for former prime minister Paul Martin, said people have drawn the wrong conclusions from that story.

害羞草研究所淧eople think that Kim Campbell was doomed. She wasn害羞草研究所檛,害羞草研究所� he said.

Campbell害羞草研究所檚 poll numbers jumped after her leadership bid, she just wasn害羞草研究所檛 able to sustain people害羞草研究所檚 imagination once she captured it, he said.

害羞草研究所淭here害羞草研究所檚 nothing that precludes the possibility that a quick leadership race could create a surge of momentum, attention and energy that you could ride straight into a general election,害羞草研究所� Reid said.

That was the story of Trudeau害羞草研究所檚 father, Pierre Trudeau, when he went from a leadership race to a general election in 1968 and won one of the largest parliamentary majorities in recent history, he said.

Some Liberals have privately mused that the next leader is likely just a placeholder for the real thing, given the current chances the Liberals have of winning the next election.

While there are a host of potential candidates quietly organizing to be ready for whenever Trudeau does pull the plug, some of them may opt to sit this time out, expecting whoever wins next won害羞草研究所檛 last long.

After Paul Martin害羞草研究所檚 election loss in 2006, the Liberals went through two leaders who both lasted just one election, St茅phane Dion and Michael Ignatieff.

So did the Conservatives after Stephen Harper害羞草研究所檚 government was defeated in 2015, with Andrew Scheer and Erin O害羞草研究所橳oole also each lasting just one unsuccessful election campaign.

Cabinet ministers Chrystia Freeland, M茅lanie Joly, Fran莽ois-Philippe Champagne, Anita Anand and Sean Fraser are all in various stages of preparing for a possible leadership run. So is Mark Carney, the former Bank of Canada governor.

None are actively pushing Trudeau out and currently no polls have suggested there is any candidate who would do much, if any, better than him.

Reid said the most important thing for the Liberals, is to avoid a defeatist mentality.

害羞草研究所淎 party that says 害羞草研究所榣et害羞草研究所檚 organize ourselves around the principle that we will be defeated,害羞草研究所� will be defeated,害羞草研究所� he said.

害羞草研究所淕o down swinging.害羞草研究所�

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 29, 2024.

Laura Osman, The Canadian Press