Political scientists see the Conservative Party of B.C. in the driver-seat when it comes to challenging the B.C. NDP, but it is not clear whether the provincial Tories will make in-roads in vote-rich urban B.C.
Dennis Pilon, Chair in the Department of Politics at York University, who previously taught at the University of Victoria, said the current split on the right side of the political spectrum is nothing new.
First the Socreds, then the B.C. Liberals, represented coalitions of more socially liberal urban voters and socially conservative rural voters, who found common ground in being pro-enterprise, fiscally conservative and anti-NDP, Pilon said.
Tensions have always defined these coalitions and the provincial Conservatives are currently benefiting from increased polarization and the strength of the federal Conservatives, he added. But this rise is not happening evenly across the province. Polls show the provincial Conservatives behind the NDP in Metro Vancouver and Greater Victoria.
害羞草研究所淭hey (Conservatives) are looking like they are in the pole position to see voters come to them as a party that can beat the NDP, but it is not clear that urban right-wingers will be prepared to sign on to the Conservatives,害羞草研究所� Pilon said.
Only the election will tell whether enough former B.C. Liberals in the urban parts of B.C. 害羞草研究所� many of them federal Liberals 害羞草研究所� are 害羞草研究所減repared to hold their nose and vote for a party with conservative in its name,害羞草研究所� Pilon said.
He made these comments following Monday害羞草研究所檚 defection of high-profile MLA Elenore Sturko to the Conservative Party of B.C. from B.C. United.
Its leader Kevin Falcon had personally recruited Sturko to run in Surrey-South, which she won in the fall of 2022. She has since then emerged as one of the most prolific MLAs on either side of the legislature.
UBC political scientist Stewart Prest considers her departure to the provincial Conservatives under John Rustad a 害羞草研究所渟ignificant coup害羞草研究所� for the party.
Sturko stands apart from her three caucus colleagues in several ways. She is not only a woman representing a fast-growing urban riding in Metro Vancouver, she is also a member of the 2SLGBTQ+ community.
Pilon said it not necessarily unusual for members of that community to be part of parties on the right side of political spectrum, pointing to former B.C. Liberal MLA Lorne Mayencourt.
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Prest said Sturko can 害羞草研究所渉elp bolster害羞草研究所� the argument of the provincial Conservatives as 害羞草研究所渕ore of a big-tent害羞草研究所� right-of-centre party.
害羞草研究所淚害羞草研究所檓 sure they (Conservatives) are really hoping that,害羞草研究所� Pilon added.
But Prest and Pilon each expressed reservations about how far Sturko害羞草研究所檚 new party and ultimately voters might buy her turn.
害羞草研究所淚n this case, to see someone who is a self-described 2SLGBTQ activist joining a conservative party seems bit of a stretch and I can害羞草研究所檛 help but feel people are going to see it as being pretty opportunistic,害羞草研究所� Pilon said.
Prest, meanwhile, raises questions about the Conservatives害羞草研究所� ideological consistency and whom the party actually represents. 害羞草研究所淏ecause up until last year, it really was a party that was a welcoming home害羞草研究所or the skeptics of modernity,害羞草研究所� he said in pointing to the party害羞草研究所檚 outside-the-mainstream positions on climate change, vaccines and social inclusion.
害羞草研究所�(Those) voices are still there and they have been amplified,害羞草研究所� Prest said. 害羞草研究所淭he scrutiny is only going to increase this morning (after Sturko害羞草研究所檚 defection).害羞草研究所�
Rustad has consistently said his party has never been about any ideology and Sturko said Monday that she accepted the apology of Conservative candidate Paul Ratchford, who called her a 害羞草研究所渨oke, lesbian, social justice warrior害羞草研究所� on social media.
害羞草研究所淵es, we could talk about Twitter all day, but what we need to do is unite with a party that is resonating with British Columbians,害羞草研究所� Sturko said Monday.
Others have been less forgiving. Figures inside and outside of B.C. United have highlighted Sturko害羞草研究所檚 previous criticisms of her new party. Some have also accused her of betraying the 2SLGBTQ community, a charge she has rejected.
Looking back, it is not unusual for a new centre-of-right party to emerge out of the ashes of another one, Pilon said. W.A.C Bennett, perhaps synoymous with the Socreds, was once a provincial Conservative, he said. B.C. Liberals, for their part, had emerged out of the Socreds.
Notably, B.C.害羞草研究所檚 first-past-the-post, winner-take-all-electoral system leaves no room for a divided right, something Pilon finds ironic.
害羞草研究所淭hey could adopt a proportional system and then every vote would count. But 害羞草研究所榥o, no, no,害羞草研究所� they wanted to keep this system where the votes don害羞草研究所檛 necessarily match up with the seats,害羞草研究所� he said. 害羞草研究所淭his is the dilemma that the two right-of-centre parties have now. They actually don害羞草研究所檛 want to unite.害羞草研究所�
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