Canadians won害羞草研究所檛 escape food inflation any time soon.

Food prices in Canada will continue to escalate in the new year, with grocery costs forecast to rise up to seven per cent in 2023, new research predicts.

For a family of four, the total annual grocery bill is expected to be $16,288 害羞草研究所� $1,065 more than it was this year, the 13th edition of Canada害羞草研究所檚 Food Price Report released Monday said.

A single woman in her 40s 害羞草研究所� the average age in Canada 害羞草研究所� will pay about $3,740 for groceries next year while a single man the same age would pay $4,168, according to the report and Statistics Canada.

Food inflation is set to remain stubbornly high in the first half of 2023 before it starts to ease, said Sylvain Charlebois, lead author of the report and Dalhousie University professor of food distribution and policy.

害羞草研究所淲hen you look at the current food inflation cycle we害羞草研究所檙e in right now, we害羞草研究所檙e probably in the seventh-inning stretch,害羞草研究所� he said in an interview. 害羞草研究所淭he first part of 2023 will remain challenging 害羞草研究所� but we害羞草研究所檙e starting to see the end of this.害羞草研究所�

Multiple factors could influence food prices next year, including climate change, geopolitical conflicts, rising energy costs and the lingering effects of COVID-19, the report said.

Currency fluctuations could also play a role in food prices. A weaker Canadian dollar could make importing goods like lettuce more expensive, for example.

Earlier this year the loonie was worth more than 80 cents US, but it then dropped to a low of 72.17 cents US in October amid a strengthening U.S. dollar. It has hovered near the 74 cent mark in recent weeks, ending Friday at 74.25 cents US.

害羞草研究所淭he produce section is going to be the wild card,害羞草研究所� Charlebois said. 害羞草研究所淐urrency is one of the key things that could throw things off early in the winter and that害羞草研究所檚 why produce is the highest category.害羞草研究所�

Vegetables could see the biggest price spikes, with estimates pegging cost increases will rise as high as eight per cent, the report said.

In addition to currency risks, much of the produce sold in Canada comes from the United States, which has been struggling with extremely dry conditions.

害羞草研究所淭he western U.S., particularly California, has seen strong El Ni帽o weather patterns and droughts and bacterial contaminations, and that害羞草研究所檚 impacted our fruit and vegetable suppliers and prices,害羞草研究所� said Simon Somogyi, campus lead at the University of Guelph and professor at the Gordon S. Lang School of Business and Economics.

害羞草研究所淭he drought is making the production of lettuce more expensive,害羞草研究所� he said. 害羞草研究所淚t害羞草研究所檚 reducing the crop size but it害羞草研究所檚 also causing bacterial contamination, which is lessening the supply in the marketplace.害羞草研究所�

Prices in other key food categories like meat, dairy and bakery are predicted to soar up to seven per cent, the researchers found.

The Canadian Dairy Commission has approved a farm gate milk price increase of about 2.2 per cent, or just under two cents per litre, for Feb. 1, 2023.

害羞草研究所淭he increase for February is reasonable but it comes after the unprecedented increases in 2022, which are continuing to work their way through the supply chain,害羞草研究所� Charlebois said of the two price hikes of nearly 11 per cent combined in 2022.

Meanwhile, seafood is expected to increase up to six per cent, while fruit could increase up to five per cent, the report said.

Restaurant costs are expected to increase four to six per cent, less than supermarket prices, the report said.

Rising prices will push food security and affordability even further out of reach of Canadians a year after food bank use reached a record high, the report said.

The increasing reliance on food banks is expected to continue, with 20 per cent of Canadians reporting they will likely turn to community organizations in 2023 for help feeding their families, a survey included in the report found.

Use of weekly flyers, coupons, bulk buying and food rescuing apps also ticked up this year and is expected to continue growing in 2023, the report said.

害羞草研究所淲e害羞草研究所檙e in the era now of the smart shopper,害羞草研究所� said Somogyi, also the Arrell Chair in the Business of Food.

害羞草研究所淔or certain generations, it害羞草研究所檚 the first time that they害羞草研究所檝e had to make a list, not impulse buy, read the weekly flyers, use coupons, buy in volume and freeze what they don害羞草研究所檛 use.害羞草研究所�

Last year害羞草研究所檚 report predicted food prices would increase five to seven per cent in 2022 害羞草研究所� the biggest jump ever predicted by the annual food price report.

Food costs actually far exceeded that forecast. Grocery prices were up 11 per cent in October compared with a year before while overall food costs were up 10.1 per cent, according to Statistics Canada.

害羞草研究所淲e were called alarmists,害羞草研究所� Charlebois said of the prediction that food prices could rise seven per cent in 2022. Critics called the report an 害羞草研究所渆xaggeration,害羞草研究所� he said.

害羞草研究所淵ou害羞草研究所檙e always one crisis away from throwing everything out the window,害羞草研究所� Charlebois said. 害羞草研究所淲e didn害羞草研究所檛 predict the war in Ukraine, and that really affected markets.害羞草研究所�

害羞草研究所擝rett Bundale, The Canadian Press