We were warned.
On June 23, 1988, a sultry day in Washington, James Hansen told Congress and the world that global warming wasn害羞草研究所檛 approaching 害羞草研究所� it had already arrived. The testimony of the top NASA scientist, said Rice University historian Douglas Brinkley, was 害羞草研究所渢he opening salvo of the age of climate change.害羞草研究所�
Thirty years later, it害羞草研究所檚 clear that Hansen and other doomsayers were right. But the change has been so sweeping that it is easy to lose sight of effects large and small 害羞草研究所� some obvious, others less conspicuous.
Earth is noticeably hotter, the weather stormier and more extreme. Polar regions have lost billions of tons of ice; sea levels have been raised by trillions of gallons of water. Far more wildfires rage.
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Over 30 years 害羞草研究所� the time period climate scientists often use in their studies in order to minimize natural weather variations 害羞草研究所� the world害羞草研究所檚 annual temperature has warmed nearly 1 degree (0.54 degrees Celsius), according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. And the temperature in the United States has gone up even more 害羞草研究所� nearly 1.6 degrees.
害羞草研究所淭he biggest change over the last 30 years, which is most of my life, is that we害羞草研究所檙e no longer thinking just about the future,害羞草研究所� said Kathie Dello, a climate scientist at Oregon State University in Corvallis. 害羞草研究所淐limate change is here, it害羞草研究所檚 now and it害羞草研究所檚 hitting us hard from all sides.害羞草研究所�
Warming hasn害羞草研究所檛 been just global, it害羞草研究所檚 been all too local. According to an Associated Press statistical analysis of 30 years of weather, ice, fire, ocean, biological and other data, every single one of the 344 climate divisions in the Lower 48 states 害羞草研究所� NOAA groupings of counties with similar weather 害羞草研究所� has warmed significantly, as has each of 188 cities examined.
The effects have been felt in cities from Atlantic City, New Jersey, where the yearly average temperature rose 2.9 degrees in the past 30 years, to Yakima, Washington, where the thermometer jumped a tad more. In the middle, Des Moines, Iowa, warmed by 3.3 degrees since 1988.
South central Colorado, the climate division just outside Salida, has warmed 2.3 degrees on average since 1988, among the warmest divisions in the contiguous United States.
When she was a little girl 30 years ago, winery marketing chief Jessica Shook used to cross country ski from her Salida doorstep in winter. It was that cold and there was that much snow. Now, she has to drive about 50 miles for snow that害羞草研究所檚 not on mountain tops, she said.
害羞草研究所淭-shirt weather in January, that never used to happen when I was a child,害羞草研究所� Shook said. When Buel Mattix bought his heating and cooling system company 15 years ago in Salida, he had maybe four air conditioning jobs a year. Now he害羞草研究所檚 got a waiting list of 10 to 15 air conditioning jobs long and may not get to all of them.
And then there害羞草研究所檚 the effect on wildfires. Veteran Salida firefighter Mike Sugaski used to think a fire of 10,000 acres was big. Now he fights fires 10 times as large.
害羞草研究所淵ou kind of keep saying 害羞草研究所楬ow can they get much worse?害羞草研究所� But they do,害羞草研究所� said Sugaski, who was riding his mountain bike on what usually are ski trails in January this year.
In fact, wildfires in the United States now consume more than twice the acreage they did 30 years ago.
The statistics tracking climate change since 1988 are almost numbing. North America and Europe have warmed 1.89 degrees 害羞草研究所� more than any other continent. The Northern Hemisphere has warmed more than the Southern, the land faster than the ocean. Across the United States, temperature increases were most evident at night and in summer and fall. Heat rose at a higher rate in the North than the South.
Since 1988, daily heat records have been broken more than 2.3 million times at weather stations across the nation, half a million times more than cold records were broken.
Doreen Pollack fled Chicago cold for Phoenix more than two decades ago, but in the past 30 years night time summer heat has increased almost 3.3 degrees there. She said when the power goes out, it gets unbearable, adding: 害羞草研究所淏e careful what you ask for.害羞草研究所�
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The AP interviewed more than 50 scientists who confirmed the depth and spread of warming.
Clara Deser, climate analysis chief at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said that when dealing with 30-year time periods in smaller regions than continents or the globe as a whole, it would be unwise to say all the warming is man-made. Her studies show that in some places in North American local 害羞草研究所� though not most 害羞草研究所� natural weather variability could account for as much as half of warming.
But when you look at the globe as a whole, especially since 1970, nearly all the warming is man-made, said Zeke Hausfather of the independent science group Berkeley Earth. Without extra carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, he said, the Earth would be slightly cooling from a weakening sun. Numerous scientific studies and government reports calculate that greenhouse gases in the big picture account for more than 90 per cent of post-industrial Earth害羞草研究所檚 warming.
害羞草研究所淚t would take centuries to a millennium to accomplish that kind of change with natural causes. This, in that context, is a dizzying pace,害羞草研究所� said Kim Cobb, a climate scientist at Georgia Tech in Atlanta.
Others cautioned that what might seem to be small increases in temperature should not be taken lightly.
害羞草研究所淥ne or two degrees may not sound like much, but raising your thermostat by just that amount will make a noticeable effect on your comfort,害羞草研究所� said Deke Arndt, NOAA害羞草研究所檚 climate monitoring chief in Asheville, North Carolina, which has warmed nearly 1.8 degrees in 30 years.
Arndt said average temperatures don害羞草研究所檛 tell the entire story: 害羞草研究所淚t害羞草研究所檚 the extremes that these changes bring.害羞草研究所�
The nation害羞草研究所檚 extreme weather 害羞草研究所� flood-inducing downpours, extended droughts, heat waves and bitter cold and snow 害羞草研究所� has doubled in 30 years, according to a federal index.
The Northeast害羞草研究所檚 extreme rainfall has more than doubled. Brockton, Massachusetts, had only one day with at least four inches of rain from 1957 to 1988, but a dozen of them in the 30 years since, according to NOAA records. Ellicott City, Maryland, just had its second thousand-year flood in little less than two years.
And the summer害羞草研究所檚 named Atlantic storms? On average, the first one now forms nearly a month earlier than it did in 1988, according to University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy.
The 14 costliest hurricanes in American history, adjusted for inflation, have hit since 1988, reflecting both growing coastal development and a span that included the most intense Atlantic storms on record.
害羞草研究所淭he collective damage done by Atlantic hurricanes in 2017 was well more than half of the entire budget of our Department of Defence,害羞草研究所� said MIT害羞草研究所檚 Kerry Emanuel.
Climate scientists point to the Arctic as the place where climate change is most noticeable with dramatic sea ice loss, a melting Greenland ice sheet, receding glaciers and thawing permafrost. The Arctic has warmed twice as fast as the rest of the world.
Alaska has warmed 2.4 degrees annually since 1988 and 5.4 degrees in the winter. Since 1988, Utqiagvik (oot-GAR害羞草研究所�-vik), Alaska, formerly known as Barrow, has warmed more than 6 degrees yearly and more than 9 degrees in winter.
害羞草研究所淭he temperature change is noticeable. Our ground is thawing,害羞草研究所� said Mike Aamodt, 73, the city害羞草研究所檚 former acting mayor. He had to move his own cabins at least four times because of coastal erosion and thawing ground due to global warming. 害羞草研究所淲e live the climate change.害羞草研究所�
The amount of Arctic sea ice in September, when it shrinks the most, fell by nearly one third since 1988. It is disappearing 50 years faster than scientists predicted, said Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University.
害羞草研究所淭here is a new Arctic now because the Arctic ocean is now navigable害羞草研究所� at times in the summer, said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
The vast majority of glaciers around the world have shrunk. A NASA satellite that measures shifts in gravity calculated that Earth害羞草研究所檚 glaciers lost 279 billion tons of ice 害羞草研究所� nearly 67 trillion gallons of water 害羞草研究所� from 2002 to 2017. In 1986, the Begich Boggs visitor centre at Alaska害羞草研究所檚 Chugach National Forest opened to highlight the Portage glacier. But the glacier keeps shrinking.
害羞草研究所淵ou absolutely cannot see it from the visitor centre and you haven害羞草研究所檛 in the last 15 or so years,害羞草研究所� said climatologist Brian Brettschneider of the University of Alaska Fairbanks.
Ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica have also have shriveled, melting about 455 billion tons of ice into water, according to the NASA satellite. That害羞草研究所檚 enough water to cover the state of Georgia in water nearly 9 feet deep.
And it is enough 害羞草研究所� coupled with all the other melting ice 害羞草研究所� to raise the level of the seas. Overall, NASA satellites have shown three inches of sea level rise (75 millimeters) in just the past 25 years.
With more than 70 per cent of the Earth is covered by oceans, a 3-inch increase means about 6,500 cubic miles (27,150 cubic km) of extra water. That害羞草研究所檚 enough to cover the entire United States with water about 9 feet deep.
It害羞草研究所檚 a fitting metaphor for climate change, say scientists: We害羞草研究所檙e in deep, and getting deeper.
害羞草研究所淭hirty years ago, we may have seen this coming as a train in the distance,害羞草研究所� NOAA害羞草研究所檚 Arndt said. 害羞草研究所淭he train is in our living room now.害羞草研究所�
The Associated Press
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