Fire season officially kicked off on April 1.
The province has seen over 50 reported wildfires already and the season has hardly started.
Wildland Fire Ecologist Robert Gray has been studying the science behind wildfires for years. He says when we look to predict upcoming fire seasons, drought is the top concern.
害羞草研究所淧eople think they can look at snow pack, but there just isn害羞草研究所檛 any good, strong correlation between snowpack and the eventual fire season害羞草研究所� Most of the research is showing that drought has a big impact.害羞草研究所�
Gray says the province saw a very dry late summer and fall last year.
害羞草研究所淚t害羞草研究所檚 a concern, because the large fuels - the logs and the duff and stuff, is very dry still right now and if the snowpack comes off very quickly it doesn害羞草研究所檛 have a chance to soak in. Those fuels are basically ready to burn early summer.害羞草研究所�
On top of that, Gray says those fuels can be very difficult to extinguish if they catch on fire and typically eat up valuable provincial resources.
害羞草研究所淔ires tend to eat up resources, and, of course, the more resources you eat up the next fire has fewer resources and it害羞草研究所檚 a cascading affect.害羞草研究所�
February through April have been relatively dry in B.C. as well and could fuel a nasty wildfire season, but predicting exactly how the summer will go is not easy.
害羞草研究所淲e went from a very quiet 2020 to the heat dome in 2021 and a bad fire season. What we can predict is that every three or four or five years we害羞草研究所檙e going to have a significant fire season, just because of increasing global temperatures, changes in weather patterns, increased drought, things like that. We might have a down year, or down two years, but we害羞草研究所檙e rolling the dice and eventually we will have a bad fire season.害羞草研究所�
Gray explained that 2023 could be setting up a challenging fire season for next year.
害羞草研究所淭he el ninos that we害羞草研究所檝e had have really driven global temperature. El ninas tend to cool things a little bit. What I害羞草研究所檝e seen for some of the modelling work, long range modelling, that by next year 2024 we have a building el nino which will probably drive record global temperatures.害羞草研究所�
READ MORE: Low rainfall may elevate drought, wildfire risks in B.C. this summer
Drought and high temperatures aren害羞草研究所檛 the only cause for concern. Gray says a year with lots of precipitation allows more growth of fuels.
害羞草研究所淲e did some prescribed burning in the East Kootenays last year in the springtime and it was moist up until we had that really significant drought in the year. We grew so much grass we could have burnt the same site in the fall.害羞草研究所�
So what do we do if wildfire season is inevitable? Gray says the more prepared we are ahead of time the better.
害羞草研究所淲e害羞草研究所檝e done a lot of fuel treatment, we害羞草研究所檝e educated people about not starting fires and protecting their homes and stuff, so that it really doesn害羞草研究所檛 matter what kind of fire season we have because we are ready for it.害羞草研究所�
According to Gray, the provinces needs to do more work on fire preparation and mitigation.
害羞草研究所淚 would invest massively in prevention and mitigation,害羞草研究所� Gray said in response to what he would do if taking over the fire service in B.C. 害羞草研究所淲e spend an inordinate amount of money on response and recovery, and most of the international disaster agencies like the UN Disaster Program are basically telling governments 害羞草研究所榶ou need to reverse the formula, you need to spend far more on prevention mitigation,害羞草研究所� which basically is fuels work.害羞草研究所�
Gray says the only way to reduce evacuations and impacts to the provincial budget as well as improve air quality is to invest heavily in mitigation work, something the province isn害羞草研究所檛 doing.
害羞草研究所淚t害羞草研究所檚 the same with any other natural disturbance. Whether it害羞草研究所檚 flooding or earthquakes, if you spend the money up front then when the disaster happens it doesn害羞草研究所檛 cost you as much. Yet for some strange reason and for 25 years we害羞草研究所檝e been debating this. We害羞草研究所檙e not doing it with wildfires, and what害羞草研究所檚 worse is there害羞草研究所檚 some out there who are saying it害羞草研究所檚 too big a problem so therefore there害羞草研究所檚 no sense in spending the money on it.害羞草研究所�
Predictions always suggest the places that dry out the fastest are at highest risk for a wildfire. 害羞草研究所淭he Okanagan, the East Kootenays, the central plateau, Cariboo, Chilcotin - those are the places we tend to have a very long fire season that starts in April or May and if we don害羞草研究所檛 get June rain then you害羞草研究所檙e adding June to it. Those are places that it害羞草研究所檚 about a six month fire season.
As of April 20, B.C. has 26 wildfires currently burning.
READ MORE: Criminal probe begins after campfire-sparked blaze threatened homes in Kamloops
brittany.webster@blackpress.ca
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