Researchers and forest managers are turning to artificial intelligence in the hope it can help them predict the risk of catastrophic wildfires as climate change continues to rewrite the rule book.
It害羞草研究所檚 been the subject of more than 150 recent academic studies, said Mike Flannigan, director of the Western Partnership for Wildland Fire Science at the University of Alberta.
害羞草研究所淚t is definitely front and centre in terms of the research agendas in terms of wildland fire and will continue to be for the next years,害羞草研究所� he said.
One insurance company says it has already developed an artificial intelligence program that can assess fire risk well in advance.
Fires are fought before they start, by getting equipment and crews to the right place to fight them early. Once well and truly ablaze, they害羞草研究所檙e tough to stop.
害羞草研究所淥nce the fire gets to be a crown fire and it害羞草研究所檚 two football fields or larger, it害羞草研究所檚 nearly impossible to put it out until the weather changes,害羞草研究所� Flannigan said. 害羞草研究所淵ou害羞草研究所檙e spitting on a campfire.害羞草研究所�
The occurrence and severity of wildfires are hard to foresee, said Balz Grollimund of insurance giant Swiss Re. Droughts or forest conditions can be easily considered, but ignition depends on near-random events such as lightning strikes or the presence of roads.
Risk factors such as vegetation type also vary from place to place.
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害羞草研究所淎ll these things are very tricky with wildfires,害羞草研究所� Grollimund said. 害羞草研究所淲e害羞草研究所檙e trying to anticipate where wildfires will occur.害羞草研究所�
Artificial intelligence is well-suited to find order in a chaotic mass of data, he said.
害羞草研究所淵ou start with your observations. What have you seen in the past decades in terms of where wildfires have occurred and how big they got? And you look for correlations with any factor that might have any impact.
害羞草研究所淭he question is which data really does have any correlation. That害羞草研究所檚 where the AI comes in play. It automatically figures those correlations out.害羞草研究所�
Grollimund said he害羞草研究所檚 helped develop an artificial intelligence program that can predict fire risk as far as six months out.
He tested the program by feeding data from November 2015 from across Canada. Working with scientists and computers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, he determined where the highest risk for fires would be in the spring of 2016.
害羞草研究所淚t gives you a seasonal prediction for points on the map in terms of how likely it is to get a small fire or a large fire,害羞草研究所� he said. 害羞草研究所淚t害羞草研究所檚 a pretty basic output.害羞草研究所�
The vast majority of fires that did occur in April and May of that year happened in the high-risk zones identified by Grollimund害羞草研究所檚 program.
Flannigan is working on his own artificial intelligence application.
害羞草研究所淧icking up the patterns where fire growth and fire starts will be significant is where we害羞草研究所檙e focusing on to see if we can beat traditional methods,害羞草研究所� he said.
害羞草研究所淚t looks like we害羞草研究所檙e showing some promise, but I害羞草研究所檓 very cautious. It will be a long time before it goes into fire management operations.害羞草研究所�
Artificial intelligence will have stiff competition from Canada害羞草研究所檚 current methods, which Flannigan said work well and are copied globally.
Both men agree that those methods depend on the future being much like the past. Climate change threatens that assumption.
害羞草研究所淲ith climate change, we害羞草研究所檙e seeing conditions and situations that have no real analogue in the recent past,害羞草研究所� Flannigan said.
Swiss Re害羞草研究所檚 data suggests that while the number of fires hasn害羞草研究所檛 changed that much, the area burned is increasing.
Don害羞草研究所檛 expect that to change, said Grollimund.
害羞草研究所淎 lot of the factors that foster wildfire risk seem to increase 害羞草研究所� longer, hotter, dryer summers; wetter winters; more vegetation; more lightning.
害羞草研究所淭here害羞草研究所檚 a lot of reasons why we think, if anything, (fire risk) is going to be increasing.害羞草研究所�
Bob Weber, The Canadian Press
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