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How Biden-Trump debate could change trajectory of 2024 U.S. campaign

Both candidates are disliked by majorities of Americans, according to polling
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FILE - This combination of photos taken in Columbia, S.C. shows former President Donald Trump, left, on Feb. 24, 2024, and President Joe Biden on Jan. 27, 2024. (AP Photo)

President and his Republican rival, , will meet for a debate on Thursday that offers an unparalleled opportunity for both candidates to try to reshape the political narrative.

Biden, the Democratic incumbent, gets the chance to reassure voters that, of guiding the U.S. through a range of challenges. The 78-year-old Trump, meanwhile, could use to try to move past and convince an audience of tens of millions that he害羞草研究所檚 temperamentally suited to return to the Oval Office.

Biden and Trump enter the night facing fierce headwinds, including a public weary of the tumult of partisan politics. Both candidates are disliked by majorities of Americans, according to , and offer on virtually every core issue. Trump has promised if he returns to the White House and Biden would pose an existential threat to the nation害羞草研究所檚 democracy.

With just over four months until Election Day, their performances have the rare potential to alter the trajectory of the race. Every word and gesture will be parsed not just for what both men say but how they interact with each other and how they hold up under pressure.

害羞草研究所淒ebates tend not to change voters害羞草研究所 perception in ways that change their vote: They ordinarily reinforce, not persuade,害羞草研究所 said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, the director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania and an expert on presidential communications. 害羞草研究所淲hat makes this debate different is that you have in essence two incumbents about whom voters have very well-formed views. But that doesn害羞草研究所檛 mean that those perceptions are right or match what voters will see on stage.害羞草研究所

The debate marks a series of firsts

Trump and Biden haven害羞草研究所檛 been on the same stage or even spoken weeks before the 2020 presidential election. Trump after leading an to overturn his loss to Biden that by his supporters.

Thursday害羞草研究所檚 broadcast on CNN will be the earliest general election debate in history. It害羞草研究所檚 the first-ever televised general election presidential debate hosted by a single news outlet after both campaigns , which had organized every matchup since 1988.

Under the network害羞草研究所檚 rules, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. .

Aiming to avoid a repeat of their chaotic 2020 matchups, Biden insisted 害羞草研究所 and Trump agreed 害羞草研究所 to hold the debate without an audience and to allow the network to mute the candidates害羞草研究所 microphones when it is not their turn to speak. There will be two commercial breaks, another departure from modern practice. The candidates have agreed not to consult staff or others while the cameras are off.

The timing follows moves by both candidates to respond to nationwide trends toward early voting by shifting forward the political calendar. It remains to be seen whether the advanced schedule will dampen the effects of any missteps or crystallize them in the public害羞草研究所檚 mind.

害羞草研究所淵ou have two men that have not debated in four years,害羞草研究所 said Phillippe Reines, a Democratic political consultant who helped former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton prepare for debates with Trump in 2016.

Biden and Trump, he said, 害羞草研究所渄on害羞草研究所檛 like each other, haven害羞草研究所檛 seen each other, (are) pretty rusty heading into the biggest night of their lives. That about sums up what害羞草研究所檚 at stake on Thursday.害羞草研究所

Both sides recognize the stakes

The debate falls days after of the Supreme Court害羞草研究所檚 overturning of Roe v. Wade, ending a federally guaranteed right to abortion and pushing reproductive rights into the center of politics ever since.

The faceoff also occurs just after the Biden White House took at the U.S.-Mexico border in an effort to lower the number of migrants entering the country. Trump has made illegal immigration a centerpiece of his campaign.

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza loom over the race, as do the candidates害羞草研究所 sharply differing views about America害羞草研究所檚 role in the world and its alliances. Differences on inflation, tax policy and government investment to build infrastructure and fight climate change will provide further contrasts.

Also in the political background: The Supreme Court is on the on whether Trump is legally immune for his alleged role in the Jan. 6 insurrection. That害羞草研究所檚 weeks after Trump was convicted in New York of taking part in a hush money scheme that prosecutors alleged was intended to unlawfully influence the 2016 election.

Biden spent the week leading up to the debate secluded at Camp David with senior White House and campaign aides as well as a coterie of longtime advisers and allies. A mock stage was built at the compound to simulate the studio where the debate will be held, and Biden害羞草研究所檚 personal attorney, Bob Bauer, was reprising his role as Trump in practice sessions.

Aides say the work reflects Biden害羞草研究所檚 understanding that he can害羞草研究所檛 afford a flat showing. They insist the sometimes stodgy orator would rise to the occasion.

Trump, meanwhile, has continued his more unstructured debate prep with two days of meetings at his Florida estate, phoning allies and supporters, and road-testing attacks in social media postings and in interviews with conservative-leaning outlets.

Trump and his aides have spent months chronicling what they argue are signs of Biden害羞草研究所檚 diminished stamina. In recent days, they害羞草研究所檝e started to predict Biden will be stronger on Thursday, aiming to raise expectations for the incumbent.

The candidates have Georgia on their mind

Atlanta, the debate害羞草研究所檚 host city, offers symbolic and practical meaning for the campaign, but each side believes that what happens there will resonate far and wide.

In 2020, Biden with a margin of less than 12,000 votes out of 5 million cast. Trump pushed the state害羞草研究所檚 Republican leadership to overturn his victory based on false theories of voter fraud, memorably saying he wanted to 害羞草研究所渇ind 11,780 votes.害羞草研究所 He now faces .

Both campaigns held a flurry of events in Atlanta leading into the debate, including competing events at Black-owned local businesses. Trump called in Friday to a gathering at Rocky害羞草研究所檚 Barbershop in the Buckhead community to talk about his matchup with Biden and question whether CNN moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash would treat him fairly.

Heading out of the debate, both Biden and Trump will travel to states they hope to swing their way this fall. Trump is heading to Virginia, a onetime battleground that has shifted toward Democrats in recent years.

Biden is set to jet off to North Carolina, where he is expected to hold the largest-yet rally of his campaign in a state Trump narrowly carried in 2020.

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