People害羞草研究所檚 Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier secured an invitation Monday to two official leaders害羞草研究所� debates in October.
The Leaders害羞草研究所� Debates Commission, formed by the federal government to organize the two debates, said Bernier害羞草研究所檚 party has a 害羞草研究所渓egitimate害羞草研究所� chance of electing members in more than one seat and he therefore qualifies to participate, a decision that drew immediate objections from the Conservatives and New Democrats.
Bernier has said that participating in the debates is crucial to getting his new party害羞草研究所檚 message in front of potentially receptive voters.
He had previously been denied the chance to debate because the commission found his party did not meet at least two of three criteria for participation:
害羞草研究所� having at least one MP elected as a member of that party;
害羞草研究所� running candidates in at least 90 per cent of Canada害羞草研究所檚 338 ridings; and/or
害羞草研究所� having won at least four per cent of the popular vote in the last election or having a legitimate chance at electing candidates
Bernier is the party害羞草研究所檚 lone MP but he was elected as a Conservative, forming the People害羞草研究所檚 Party after losing the leadership to Andrew Scheer and ultimately concluding that there害羞草研究所檚 little difference between the Tories and the Liberals.
The People害羞草研究所檚 Party is running candidates in more than 90 per cent of Canada害羞草研究所檚 ridings. But the debates commission initially ruled that the party didn害羞草研究所檛 stand a legitimate shot at electing more than one candidate and told Bernier he was out.
After giving the party more time to provide further evidence and to bring the decision closer to the date of the actual election, debates commissioner and former governor general David Johnston said the party does in fact have a 害羞草研究所渞easonable chance害羞草研究所� at winning multiple seats.
害羞草研究所淭hat was the right decision,害羞草研究所� Bernier said in a video posted to Twitter soon after the news.
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Michel Cormier, executive director for the debates commission, expressed confidence in the decision-making process.
害羞草研究所淯nder the leadership of Mr. Johnston, it害羞草研究所檚 been a very reasoned and detailed and deliberate process to make sure we come to the right decision. Because it害羞草研究所檚 a decision of importance,害羞草研究所� Cormier said in an interview.
Johnston noted in a statement made public Monday the decision-making process for determining inclusion was 害羞草研究所渃omplex害羞草研究所� and required interpretation of what was meant by 害羞草研究所渓egitimate chance,害羞草研究所� and how to consider multiple factors 害羞草研究所� some of which were quantifiable and some which were not.
Johnston also said it was difficult to predict the chance of winning in this early stage, but based on past trends, he concluded 害羞草研究所渋t is possible that the PPC害羞草研究所檚 support may change positively over the course of the upcoming campaign.害羞草研究所�
On the question of more recent polling data, the debates commission worked with the research firm EKOS to survey four ridings the PPC flagged as having prominent candidates with a chance of victory.
害羞草研究所淲e decided not to poll people害羞草研究所檚 general voting intentions of other parties害羞草研究所� so the commission could isolate the level of potential support for the People害羞草研究所檚 Party, Cormier said.
害羞草研究所淲e害羞草研究所檙e not predicting victory here, we害羞草研究所檙e just trying to measure whether they have a reasonable chance,害羞草研究所� he said.
The resulting polling found substantial minorities of people in those four ridings who said it was either 害羞草研究所減ossible, likely, or certain害羞草研究所� they would vote for the PPC candidate.
The level of potential support broke down to 34.1 per cent of respondents in Nipissing-Timiskaming, 29.9 per cent in Etobicoke North and 25.9 per cent in Pickering-Uxbridge, all in Ontario, and 24.5 per cent in Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingly, in Manitoba.
The commission also asked polling firm Nanos Research for an opinion on what level of support was needed to win a riding. Based on past electoral results, Nanos responded that parties had a chance of winning a seat if they garnered more than 25-per-cent support.
害羞草研究所淯pon review of this opinion, I conclude that where more than one of four voters in a riding considers voting for a party, that party has a reasonable chance to elect its candidate,害羞草研究所� Johnston said.
The debates commissioner also took into account Bernier害羞草研究所檚 personal popularity in his own riding of Beauce, Que., as well as a submission from the Conservatives that no party has won a seat with national support under three per cent since 1949.
The Conservatives accused Johnston of bias against them. Some Tories have accused EKOS pollster Frank Graves of being anti-Conservative as well, which he害羞草研究所檚 denied.
害羞草研究所淚t害羞草研究所檚 no big surprise that Justin Trudeau害羞草研究所檚 hand-picked debate panel used a Liberal-friendly pollster who attacks Andrew Scheer to ultimately justify Mr. Bernier害羞草研究所檚 attendance at the debate,害羞草研究所� press secretary Daniel Schow said by email. 害羞草研究所淭rudeau has been stacking the deck for months, using the power of his office to tilt the playing field in his favour for this election.害羞草研究所�
The New Democrats objected to Bernier害羞草研究所檚 inclusion for a different reason.
害羞草研究所淭he rise of extremism, hate speech and white supremacy is a real threat to our country. Leaders have a responsibility to not feed this problem, but this is exactly what Maxime Bernier is doing,害羞草研究所� the NDP said in a statement.
害羞草研究所淲e think this was the wrong decision. The decision has been made independently, so there is nothing else that we can do, but we hope other leaders will join us in denouncing any hate speech from Maxime Bernier.害羞草研究所�
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The Liberals also offered a statement: 害羞草研究所淥ur Liberal team appointed former governor general, the Right Honourable David Johnston, to lead the new debate commission so decisions on participation for the two official debates would be made independently. We look forward to continuing to share our positive, forward-looking and inclusive vision with Canadians.害羞草研究所�
Bernier will join the leaders of the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP, Bloc Quebecois and Greens in two debates: one in English on Oct. 7 and a French-language debate Oct. 10.
Christian Paas-Lang, The Canadian Press
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