A University of B.C. professor of political science said that the upcoming federal election serves no good purpose for Canada 害羞草研究所� and might not help Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, either.
害羞草研究所淚t害羞草研究所檚 not as if the Trudeau government was having trouble legislating,害羞草研究所� said Richard Johnston, professor emeritus, adding that the Liberal government had a 害羞草研究所渨orking majority害羞草研究所� on pretty much all policy decisions.
害羞草研究所淢ostly, the problem of the minority parliament was that the government didn害羞草研究所檛 control the flow of debate and information害羞草研究所� they had they actually had to at least negotiate with the opposition parties, or even just put up with flak on questions that were uncomfortable, and they would rather not have to continue in that.害羞草研究所�
While Trudeau is billing this snap election 害羞草研究所� scheduled for Sept. 20 害羞草研究所� as a referendum on who should lead the country out of the pandemic, Johnston said that won害羞草研究所檛 be enough for a majority 害羞草研究所� and the Liberals know it.
害羞草研究所淭he additional cards that he will be trying to play are policy cards, right?害羞草研究所� Johnston said, noting the eight child care agreements signed with provinces in the weeks before the writ was dropped. 害羞草研究所淗e害羞草研究所檚 opened the spigot for infrastructure, and he害羞草研究所檚 done so in very targeted ways.害羞草研究所�
That includes SkyTrain funding announcement for ridings like Cloverdale-Langley City, which Conservative Tamara Jansen took from the Liberals in the 2019 election.
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But while Trudeau may be looking at pandemic-era snap elections in B.C. and New Brunswick, where the incumbents were able to transform minorities into majorities, Johnston said that federal politics are more complicated and that the Liberals don害羞草研究所檛 have much wiggle room. They have 155 of the 338 seats in Parliament currently, with the Conservatives at 119, the Bloc Quebecois at 32, the NDP at 24, the Greens at two and independents at five.
Johnston said that since the 1970s, the political divide between the Conservatives and the rest of the parties has grown wider and wider, leaving fewer and fewer swing voters between the right and the Liberals.
害羞草研究所淏ut the fact is that the Prime Minister side of the political spectrum is the divided side. There are competitors for a lot of those vote,害羞草研究所� he said.
In both the party害羞草研究所檚 platform released just prior to the write being dropped and in public appearances, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has targeted the increasing costs of housing and child care, problems his party has laid squarely at Trudeau害羞草研究所檚 feet.
The NDP, Johnston said, while remaining not popular enough to form government has a 害羞草研究所渃ertain credibility at the moment害羞草研究所� as a party that is strong enough that it can be a plausible destination for voters who don害羞草研究所檛 want the Conservatives, but don害羞草研究所檛 want to reward Mr. Trudeau for his gamble.害羞草研究所�
But while the NDP may be stronger this year than in past ones, Johnston said that only in some parts of the country 害羞草研究所� such as B.C. 害羞草研究所� will more votes for the New Democrats turn into more seats for Jagmeet Singh. In places like Ontario, votes for the NDP could well turn into Conservative seats as the party takes advantage of confusion on the left side of the spectrum.
And the Conservatives are better prepared this time, Johnston said. The Tories have already unveiled their platform 害羞草研究所� a contrast to 2019, when they released it a week prior to Election Day 害羞草研究所� and it includes initiatives that 害羞草研究所測ou haven害羞草研究所檛 heard from Conservatives害羞草研究所� before.
害羞草研究所淚t害羞草研究所檚 time for Conservatives to take inequality seriously, because that害羞草研究所檚 becoming more of a problem in our country,害羞草研究所� Leader Erin O害羞草研究所橳oole states in the document. He also promises to 害羞草研究所渢ake climate change seriously,害羞草研究所� but Johnston said that could be a double-edged sword for the Conservative leader.
害羞草研究所淚 think that O害羞草研究所橳oole is a more credible leader for the broad mass of voters than Andrew Scheer was,害羞草研究所� he said. 害羞草研究所�(But) I do think that O害羞草研究所橳oole has his own problems and these are the problems of the Conservative Party.害羞草研究所�
The Tories害羞草研究所� issues are long-term ones, Johnston added.
The Conservative Party of 2021 is a merger of the Progressive Conservatives and the Canadian Alliance (formerly the Reform Party) that took place in 2003. The current party, Johnston said, 害羞草研究所渃learly a party of the right害羞草研究所� and created a gap between the more right-leaning candidates popular with party members and those popular with voters overall.
害羞草研究所淎lthough O害羞草研究所橳oole has dragged his party toward the centre on climate change, his party doesn害羞草研究所檛 really want to be dragged. And as that question comes up, Trudeau will be reminding people all the time, of the consequences of going over to that side.害羞草研究所�
The other issue it created, Johnston added, is that O害羞草研究所橳oole 害羞草研究所� like prior leaders 害羞草研究所� needs to keep all facets of his own party happy with policies that cater to social conservatives without turning away fiscal conservatives.
But the problem all around the political spectrum this year will be turnout. In 2019, 67 per cent of voters cast a ballot. But this year, voters already fatigued from an 18-month pandemic 害羞草研究所� and in B.C. the raging wildfires 害羞草研究所� may decide it害羞草研究所檚 not worth it for them to head to the polls.
害羞草研究所淚 think it害羞草研究所檚 hard to see this as a campaign that害羞草研究所檚 going to inspire anyone,害羞草研究所� Johnston said. His guess for the results?
害羞草研究所淚f had to put money down, I害羞草研究所檇 bet on roughly replication of the status quo.害羞草研究所�
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Editor害羞草研究所檚 note: The previous version of this story stated that the NDP had not released their platform. In fact, the party released it on Aug. 12, prior to the writ being dropped.
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