Ask John Wildenborg if he thinks Canadians will be paying more for steak during future barbecue seasons, and the owner of Calgary specialty butcher shop Master Meats doesn害羞草研究所檛 hesitate.

害羞草研究所淧rices are definitely going to go higher, no ifs, ands or buts about it,害羞草研究所� he said.

害羞草研究所淚t keeps me up at night, actually, thinking about coming into the summer and where prices are going to be. It害羞草研究所檚 not a good situation.害羞草研究所�

Beef 害羞草研究所� whether in the form of a juicy burger or a classic tenderloin steak 害羞草研究所� is a mainstay of many Canadians害羞草研究所� diets. Its popularity is the reason why consumer demand for beef has historically remained strong, even through periods of economic downturn when Canadians have less money in their wallets.

But the business of beef is changing, in large part due to consecutive years of severe drought across North America害羞草研究所檚 main cattle-producing regions. From parched southern Alberta to water-scarce east Texas, ranchers have been due to a lack of grass for grazing. The resulting shortfall in cattle supply is reducing overall beef production and helping to push retail beef prices higher.

害羞草研究所淎 10-ounce New Yorker right now 害羞草研究所� would cost around $20. Three years ago that was maybe a $15 steak,害羞草研究所� Wildenborg said.

害羞草研究所淎nd this is usually the slow time of year for beef, but wholesale prices haven害羞草研究所檛 dropped off at all since Christmas. I害羞草研究所檓 paying 40 per cent higher than I was last year at this time.害羞草研究所�

Food in general, as consumers know, has increased in price over the last three years due to the COVID-19 pandemic and an overall rising cost of living. But while inflation is starting to moderate in a number of food categories, the drought factor means beef prices are not.

害羞草研究所淲hen you talk to producers, whether it害羞草研究所檚 in the Canadian provinces or key cattle-producing regions of the United States, many producers will tell youthey害羞草研究所檝e had to experience two 害羞草研究所榟undred-year droughts害羞草研究所� back-to-back over the course of 10 years,害羞草研究所� said Lance Zimmerman, a Kansas-based senior beef analyst with Rabobank.

害羞草研究所淎dd to that a global pandemic and all the challenges that go along with that, and we害羞草研究所檝e had a 10- to 15-year period that害羞草研究所檚 been particularly challenging for a lot of cattle producers. It has led to a lot of liquidation.害羞草研究所�

Liquidation is when a rancher makes the decision to sell off a greater proportion of heifers and cows for slaughter rather than retaining them to grow his or her herd. Ranchers may decide to do this because of a variety of factors, including high input costs, limited labour availability and high interest rates, as well as the challenges associated with long-term drought.

In Canada, the size of the national cattle herd has been declining for years, a trend that continued last year amid a punishing drought in Western Canada. This country害羞草研究所檚 beef cow inventory fell in 2023 by 1.5 per cent to 3.66 million animals 害羞草研究所� the lowest level since 1989.

South of the border, U.S. Department of Agriculture figures show an even more dramatic story. There, the national cattle herd has been contracting for five years, reaching 28.2 million animals in 2023. That害羞草研究所檚 the smallest number of cattle the U.S. has seen since 1961.

Fewer cattle means less beef production, which translates to fewer exports as well as higher prices at the retail counter.

害羞草研究所淯nfortunately for the consumer, those prices are going to ratchet higher,害羞草研究所� said Zimmerman.

害羞草研究所淥n a U.S. basis, retail beef prices are currently about US$8 a pound, and by our estimation, over the next several years we can expect another dollar-and-a-half increase, quite easily.害羞草研究所�

In southeast Alberta, near the tiny community of Jenner, rancher Brad Osadczuk shipped some of his cattle east to Saskatchewan last summer to graze on rented pastureland. It was the only way he could feed them because his own grassland was entirely depleted by drought.

害羞草研究所淭his past year was the worst year for drought in adult life and I was born in 1971,害羞草研究所� Osadczuk said. 害羞草研究所淥ur native prairie just never turned green.害羞草研究所�

While Osadczuk was able to avoid reducing his herd size, he said many ranchers in his area have been choosing not to replace cows after they sell them for at least the past five years.

害羞草研究所淲e害羞草研究所檝e been mitigating drought for a long time,害羞草研究所� he said.

害羞草研究所淪o we害羞草研究所檙e kind of at a point in this part of Alberta where our herds are pretty small already.害羞草研究所�

Even if the current drought cycle were to end this year, cattle numbers can害羞草研究所檛 rebound overnight. That害羞草研究所檚 why experts say the new era of higher beef prices is here to stay, at least for a while.

害羞草研究所淭his isn害羞草研究所檛 a short-term thing,害羞草研究所� Osadczuk said.

害羞草研究所淔or a female calf that is born today, it害羞草研究所檚 four years before that female can have its own calf that can end up in the food chain.害羞草研究所�

Anne Wasko, a Saskatchewan-based market analyst with Gateway Livestock, said North American cattle and beef supplies will remain tight for several years, and much is riding on Mother Nature.

害羞草研究所淲e害羞草研究所檙e going to be looking at smaller supplies in 害羞草研究所�24, 害羞草研究所�25 and possibly out as far as 害羞草研究所�26,害羞草研究所� she said.

害羞草研究所淲e truly need moisture, first and foremost, to turn this boat around.害羞草研究所�

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Amanda Stephenson, The Canadian Press