Canada is not in for a recession this year 害羞草研究所渂ut a soft landing.害羞草研究所�

That害羞草研究所檚 the word from Pierre Cl茅roux, chief economist of the Business Development Bank of Canada, who served up his economic forecast at a Surrey Board of Trade luncheon at Northview Golf Course on Feb. 1.

害羞草研究所淕rowth is going to be below one per cent, so there害羞草研究所檚 not much growth especially if you look compared to 2021-22 this is quite modest growth but the economy will continue to grow anyway, especially the second part of 2024,害羞草研究所� Cl茅roux said. 害羞草研究所淪o the economy is going to be flat until interest rates start to decline but in the second part of the year you will see more momentum in the economy and in 2025 we will go back to a more balanced economy. Low inflation, lower interest rate and growth is going to become again, around two per cent.害羞草研究所�

Inflation is going down everywhere, he said, but there are still challenges. European countries will still under-perform this year, mostly because of the war in Ukraine, which is increasing the price of energy. 害羞草研究所淚t害羞草研究所檚 really disrupting supply chains, so Europe is going to have another difficult year in 2024.害羞草研究所�

North America, in contrast, 害羞草研究所渋s going to be the best region in the world. This is where we see the most growth in the world right now, it害羞草研究所檚 in North America.害羞草研究所�

The U.S. economy is doing better than Canada害羞草研究所檚, he noted. 害羞草研究所淲hat is different is the growth in the U.S. is much stronger than in Canada.害羞草研究所� The reason, Cl茅roux said, is the structure of mortgages 害羞草研究所渋s quite different in the U.S.害羞草研究所� Eighty per cent of Americans have 25-year mortgages. 害羞草研究所淚n Canada it害羞草研究所檚 the opposite 害羞草研究所� 80 per cent of Canadians have a mortgage for less than five years. So when you increase the interest rate, you don害羞草研究所檛 have the same impact on people. If people have a mortgage for 25 years, well they won害羞草研究所檛 see the difference at the end of the month even if interest rates are increasing. They might have a car loan and something else, but in Canada the hit is more because people renew their mortgage.害羞草研究所�

Two more reasons the U.S. is performing 害羞草研究所渕uch better害羞草研究所� than Canada, he said, is because the U.S. government is spending a lot of money, 害羞草研究所渨hich is helping the economy,害羞草研究所� and consumers south of the border have also been spending a lot of money. 害羞草研究所淐onsumption in the U.S. is very strong.害羞草研究所�

Cl茅roux expects the Bank of Canada will reduce interest rates in June, after increasing it for the past 18 months. And when interest rates decline, he said, consumption will increase 害羞草研究所渂ecause there害羞草研究所檚 money in the system.害羞草研究所�

害羞草研究所淥ur forecast for the B.C. economy is growth around 0.5 per cent,害羞草研究所� he said. 害羞草研究所淪o it害羞草研究所檚 modest growth, but not a recession. The economy is just slowing down. Like for Canada when interest rates start to decline in June, you will see more pick up in the economy. The first sector that is going to come back is the housing market. Retail is also going to improve and the manufacturing sector is going to follow; 2025 is going to be a much better year where growth is going to be close to two per cent.害羞草研究所�