This North Carolina voter is nervous.
Will Rikard, a 49-year-old father of two, was among several hundred Democrats who stood and cheered for Joe Biden as the first-term president delivered a fiery speech recently about the billions of dollars he has delivered to protect the state害羞草研究所檚 drinking water.
But afterward, the Wilmington resident acknowledged he is worried about Biden害羞草研究所檚 political standing in the looming rematch with former Republican President Donald Trump.
害羞草研究所淭here害羞草研究所檚 not enough energy,害羞草研究所� Rikard said of Biden害羞草研究所檚 coalition. 害羞草研究所淚 think people are gonna need to wake up and get going.害羞草研究所�
Exactly six months before Election Day, Biden and Trump are locked in the first contest in 112 years with a current and former president competing for the White House. It害羞草研究所檚 a race that is at once deeply entrenched and highly in flux as many voters are only just beginning to embrace the reality of the 2024 campaign.
Wars, trials, the independent candidacy of Robert Kennedy Jr. and deep divisions across America have injected extraordinary uncertainty into a race for the White House in which either man would be the oldest president ever sworn in on Inauguration Day. At the same time, policy fights over abortion, immigration and the economy are raging on Capitol Hill and in statehouses.
VOTERS IN DENIAL
Hovering over it all is the disbelief of many voters, despite all evidence to the contrary, that Biden and Trump 害羞草研究所� their respective parties害羞草研究所� presumptive nominees 害羞草研究所� will ultimately appear on the general election ballot this fall.
害羞草研究所淚 think we have an electorate that害羞草研究所檚 going through the stages of grief about this election,害羞草研究所� said Sarah Longwell, who conducts regular focus groups with voters across the political spectrum as co-founder of Republican Voters Against Trump. 害羞草研究所淭hey害羞草研究所檝e done denial 害羞草研究所� 害羞草研究所楴ot these two, can害羞草研究所檛 possibly be these two.害羞草研究所� And I think they害羞草研究所檙e in depression now. I害羞草研究所檓 waiting for people to hit acceptance.害羞草研究所�
Trump is in the midst of the first of potentially four criminal trials and facing felony charges. The Constitution does not prevent him from assuming the presidency if convicted 害羞草研究所� or even if he is in prison.
Biden, who will turn 82 years old just weeks after Election Day, Nov. 5, is already the oldest president in U.S. history; Trump is 77.
Privately, Democratic operatives close to the campaign worry constantly about Biden害羞草研究所檚 health and voters害羞草研究所� dim perceptions of it. In recent weeks, aides have begun walking at Biden害羞草研究所檚 side as he strolls to and from Marine One, the presidential helicopter, on the White House South Lawn in an apparent effort to help mask the president害羞草研究所檚 stiff gait.
Still, neither party is making serious contingency plans. Whether voters want to believe it or not, the general election matchup is all but set.
North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, said many voters arel recovering from what he called 害羞草研究所渁 knock-down, drag-out fight害羞草研究所� that was the 2020 presidential election.
害羞草研究所淢any of them have not wrapped their heads around the fact that it is, in fact, going to be a rematch,害羞草研究所� Cooper said in an interview. 害羞草研究所淲hen they do, I don害羞草研究所檛 think there害羞草研究所檚 any question that Joe Biden is going to win the day.害羞草研究所�
GETTING TO 270 ELECTORIAL VOTES 害羞草研究所� THE BATTLEGROUND STATES
Even before voters begin paying close attention, the political map in the fight for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency is already taking shape.
Biden害羞草研究所檚 campaign is increasingly optimistic about North Carolina, a state he lost by just 1 percentage point in 2020. Overall, the Democratic president害羞草研究所檚 reelection campaign has several hundred staff in more than 133 offices in the seven most critical states: Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.
Trump害羞草研究所檚 team has barely begun to roll out swing-state infrastructure, although he campaigned in Wisconsin and Michigan over the past week, sending a clear signal that he wants to block Biden害羞草研究所檚 path to reelection via the Democrats害羞草研究所� Midwestern 害羞草研究所渂lue wall.害羞草研究所�
Trump campaign senior adviser Chris LaCivita said Trump is making plans to invest new resources in at least two other Democratic-leaning states.
At a private donor retreat in Florida on Saturday, LaCivita discussed the campaign害羞草研究所檚 plans to expand its electoral map into Virginia and Minnesota, based on the Trump team害羞草研究所檚 growing optimism that both states are within reach.
害羞草研究所淲e have a real opportunity to expand the map here,害羞草研究所� LaCivita told tThe Associated Press. 害羞草研究所淭he Biden campaign has spent tens of millions of dollars on TV ads and in their 害羞草研究所榲aunted ground game害羞草研究所�. And they have nothing to show for it.害羞草研究所�
Biden害羞草研究所檚 campaign welcomed Trump害羞草研究所檚 team to spend money in Democratic states. 害羞草研究所淭he Biden campaign is going to relentlessly focus on the pathway to 270 electoral votes, and that害羞草研究所檚 what our efforts represent,害羞草研究所� campaign communications director Michael Tyler said.
Biden has been spending far more aggressively on election infrastructure and advertising heading into the six-month stretch toward Election Day.
In the eight weeks since he essentially clinched the Republican nomination, Trump害羞草研究所檚 campaign has spent virtually nothing on television advertising, according to the media tracking firm AdImpact. Outside groups aligned with Trump have spent just over $9 million.
Over the same period, AdImpact found, Biden and his allies have spent more than $29 million spread across Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Trump害羞草研究所檚 team has been unusually conservative, in part, to avoid the perceived mistakes of 2020, when his campaign essentially ran out of money and was forced to cut back on advertising in the election害羞草研究所檚 critical final days, but also because it has struggled to reignite its appeal with small donors and because of the diversion of some dollars to the former president害羞草研究所檚 legal defense.
Trump害羞草研究所檚 team insists they will soon ramp up their advertising and on-the-ground infrastructure, although LaCivita refused to offer any specifics.
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VOTERS UNDERWHELMED WITH THEIR OPTIONS
It is clear that Biden and Trump have serious work to do to improve their standing with voters.
While optimistic in public, Biden allies privately acknowledge that his approval ratings may be lower than Democrat Jimmy Carter害羞草研究所檚 numbers at this point in his presidency. Trump害羞草研究所檚 ratings are not much better.
Public polling consistently shows that voters don害羞草研究所檛 like their 2024 options.
Only about 2 in 10 Americans say they would be excited by Biden (21%) or Trump (25%) being elected president, according to an AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll conducted in March. Only about one-quarter of voters in the survey say they would be satisfied about each.
A recent CNN poll conducted in April found that 53% of registered voters say they are dissatisfied with the presidential candidates they have to choose from in this year害羞草研究所檚 election.
Another major wild card is Kennedy, a member of the storied political dynasty and an anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist who is running as an independent. Both major campaigns are taking him seriously as a potential spoiler, with Trump害羞草研究所檚 allies notably ramping up their criticism of Kennedy in recent days.
BIDEN害羞草研究所橲 PLAN; REMIND VOTERS WHAT TRUMP害羞草研究所橲 PRESIDENCY WAS LIKE
For now, Biden害羞草研究所檚 team is most focused on reminding voters of Trump害羞草研究所檚 divisive leadership. Three years after Trump left office, there is a sense that some voters may have forgotten what it was like with the former reality television star in the Oval Office 害羞草研究所� or his efforts to overturn the 2020 election that have landed him in legal peril.
害羞草研究所淭he plan is reminding voters of what life was like with Trump and also demonstrating to voters that the ways in which the world feels uncertain to them now are not, in fact, caused by the president, but can actually be navigated by this president,害羞草研究所� Biden pollster Mary Murphy told the AP. 害羞草研究所淰oters will trust his leadership and stewardship, knowing that things can be a lot worse if it害羞草研究所檚 Donald Trump.害羞草研究所�
Biden害羞草研究所檚 team is also betting that fierce backlash to new restrictions on abortion, which Trump and Republicans have largely championed, will drive voters to Democrats like they did in the 2022 midterm election and 2023 state races.
But Biden害羞草研究所檚 success also is dependent on the Democrat害羞草研究所檚 ability to reassemble his winning coalition from 2020 at a time when enthusiasm is lagging among critical voting blocs including Blacks, young voters and Arab Americans unhappy over the president害羞草研究所檚 handling of the war in Gaza.
TRUMP害羞草研究所橲 PLAN: TURN HIS LEGAL WOES TO HIS ADVANTAGE
Trump has been forced to adapt his campaign to his first criminal trial in New York. Prosecutors allege he committed financial fraud to hide hush money payments to a porn actor, Stormy Daniels, who says she had a sexual encounter with Trump. He denies her claim and has pleaded not guilty.
For now, Trump is forced to attend the trial most weekdays. A verdict is likely still weeks away. And after that, he faces the prospect of more trials related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election and his handling of classified documents. The Supreme Court is weighing whether Trump should be granted immunity, or partial immunity, for the actions he took while in office.
Trump over the past week wedged in campaign stops around his court schedule, rallying voters in Wisconsin and Michigan, where the abortion debate is raging.
Trump seemed to be searching for a way to lessen the political sting from the upheaval over the Supreme Court害羞草研究所檚 overturning of national abortion rights. The former president suggested the issue will ultimately bring the country together as states carve out differing laws.
害羞草研究所淎 lot of bad things will happen beyond the abortion issue if you don害羞草研究所檛 win elections, with your taxes and everything else,害羞草研究所� he told Michigan voters.
Trump害羞草研究所檚 camp privately maintains that his unprecedented trial in New York will dominate the news 害羞草研究所� and voters害羞草研究所� attention 害羞草研究所� for the foreseeable future. His campaign has largely stopped trying to roll out unrelated news during the trial.
Even if Trump were to be convicted by the New York jury, his advisers insist the fundamentals of the election will not change. Trump has worked aggressively to undermine public confidence in the charges against him. Meanwhile, more traditional issues work in his favor, including stubbornly high inflation and the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border, in the view of the Trump team.
LaCivita said that such issues constantly reinforce Biden害羞草研究所檚 weakness as 害羞草研究所渢he news of the day keeps getting worse.害羞草研究所�
Both sides seem to agree that the dynamics of the race may yet shift dramatically based on any number of factors, from how the economy fares or the course of the wars in Gaza and Ukraine to crime or migration trends or other foreseen events. Potential candidate debates this fall could be another wild card.
Such uncertainty, said Biden害羞草研究所檚 battleground states director Dan Kanninen, can play to their favor.
害羞草研究所淭hat dynamic is an opportunity as much as a challenge for us,害羞草研究所� he said, 害羞草研究所渂ecause we will have the resources, the infrastructure and the operation built to be engaging voters throughout all those difficult waters.害羞草研究所�
____
Miller reported from Washington. Associated Press writers Linley Sanders in Washington and Michelle L. Price in Freeland, Michigan, contributed to this report.
Steve Peoples And Zeke Miller, The Associated Press
