As Vladimir Putin heads for as Russia害羞草研究所檚 president, there害羞草研究所檚 little electoral drama in the race. What he does after he crosses the finish line is what害羞草研究所檚 drawing attention and, for many observers, provoking anxiety.
The voting that concludes on Sunday is all but certain to allow Putin to remain in office until 2030, giving him a full three decades of leading Russia as either president or prime minister.
The heft of that long tenure and the thorough gives Putin a very strong 害羞草研究所� and perhaps unrestrained 害羞草研究所� hand.
That position is bolstered by the despite wide-ranging Western sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine.
It害羞草研究所檚 also strengthened by Moscow害羞草研究所檚 incremental but consistent battlefield advances in recent months, flagging support for military aid to Kyiv from the United States and other quarters, and growing skepticism in some Western countries over more progressive social attitudes that echoes Putin害羞草研究所檚 push for 害羞草研究所渢raditional values.害羞草研究所�
Putin, in short, would head into a new term with few obvious restraints, and that could manifest itself quickly in major new actions.
害羞草研究所淩ussia害羞草研究所檚 presidential election is not so important as what will come after. Putin has often postponed unpopular moves until after elections,害羞草研究所� Bryn Rosenfeld, a Cornell University professor who studies post-Communist politics, said in a commentary.
Probably the most unpopular move he could make at home would be to order a second military mobilization to fight in Ukraine; the first, in September 2022, sparked protests, and a wave of Russians fled the country to avoid being called up. However unpopular a second mobilization might be, it could also mollify relatives of the soldiers who were drafted 18 months ago.
Some in Russia believe it could happen.
害羞草研究所淩ussian leaders are now talking of 害羞草研究所榗onsolidating the whole of Russian society around its defense needs,害羞草研究所櫤π卟菅芯克鶟 Brian Michael Jenkins, a senior adviser at the RAND Corporation think tank told The Associated Press.
害羞草研究所淭he precise meaning of this phrase is not entirely clear, but it suggests that Russia害羞草研究所檚 leadership understands that the war Putin describes will go on for a long time, and therefore resources must be mobilized,害羞草研究所� he added. 害羞草研究所淚n other words, Russian society must be organized for perpetual warfare.害羞草研究所�
But Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, says Putin doesn害羞草研究所檛 need a mobilization partly because many Russians from poorer regions have signed up to fight in order to get higher pay than what they can earn in their limited opportunities at home.
In addition, Putin害羞草研究所檚 apparent confidence that the war is turning in Russia害羞草研究所檚 favor is likely to make him continue to insist that the only way to end the conflict is for Ukraine to sit down at the negotiating table, she said. 害羞草研究所淲hich, in fact, means capitulation.害羞草研究所�
While support for Ukraine lags in Washington, both French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski have said recently that sending troops to back Kyiv is at least a hypothetical possibility.
With those statements in mind, Putin may be motivated to test the resolve of NATO.
Alexandra Vacroux, executive director of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University, posits that Russia within several years will make an attempt to assess NATO害羞草研究所檚 commitment to , the alliance害羞草研究所檚 common defense guarantee under which an attack on one member is considered an attack on all.
害羞草研究所淚 don害羞草研究所檛 think that Putin thinks that he needs to be physically, militarily stronger than all of the other countries. He just needs them to be weaker and more fractured. And so the question for him is like 害羞草研究所� instead of worrying so much about making myself stronger, how can I make everyone else weaker?害羞草研究所� she said.
害羞草研究所淪o in order to do that, it害羞草研究所檚 like you have to find a situation where you could test Article 5,害羞草研究所� and if the response is mild or uncertain 害羞草研究所渢hen you害羞草研究所檝e shown that, like NATO is just a paper tiger,害羞草研究所� Vacroux said.
Russia could run such a test without overt military action, she said, adding, 害羞草研究所淵ou could imagine, like, one of the big questions is what kind of cyberattack constitutes a threat to attack?害羞草研究所�
Although it is not a NATO member, is increasingly worried about becoming a Russian target. Since the invasion of Ukraine, neighboring Moldova has faced crises that have raised fears in its capital of Chisinau that the country is also in the Kremlin害羞草研究所檚 crosshairs.
The congress in Moldova害羞草研究所檚 separatist Transnistria region, where Russia bases about 1,500 soldiers as nominal peacekeepers, have appealed to Moscow for diplomatic 害羞草研究所減rotection害羞草研究所� because of alleged increasing pressure from Moldova.
That appeal potentially leaves 害羞草研究所渁 lot of room for escalation,害羞草研究所� said Cristain Cantir, a Moldovan international relations professor at Oakland University. 害羞草研究所淚 think it害羞草研究所檚 useful to see the congress and the resolution as a warning to Moldova that Russia may get more involved in Transnistria if Chisinau does not make concessions.害羞草研究所�
On the Russian home front, more repressive measures could come in a new Putin term, even though opposition supporters and independent media already are cowed or silenced.
Stanovaya suggested that Putin himself does not drive repressive measures but that he approves such actions that are devised by others in the expectation that these are what the Kremlin leader wants.
害羞草研究所淢any players are trying to survive and to adapt, and they compete against each other and often they have contradictory interests,害羞草研究所� she said. 害羞草研究所淎nd they are trying all together in parallel to secure their own priorities and the stability of the regime.害羞草研究所�
Russia last year 害羞草研究所渕ovement害羞草研究所� by declaring it to be extremist in what officials said was a fight for traditional values like those espoused by the Russian Orthodox Church in the face of Western influence. Courts also banned gender transitioning.
Ben Noble, a lecturer on Russian politics at University College London, said he believes that the LGBTQ+ community could face further repression in a new Putin term.
They 害羞草研究所渃an be held up as an import from the decadent West,害羞草研究所� he said.
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